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Gold Spot holding first support at 1790/85.  

Silver longs at first support at 2030/10 with a low for the day exactly here & a bounce to 2086.  

WTI Crude unfortunately did not quite reach strong resistance at 9550/9600 before prices turned lower. 

Our technical analysis & trade ideas are updated daily by 05:00 GMT 

Today’s Analysis. 

Gold first support at 1788/85 holding the downside on Thursday & Friday. Best support at 1780/75 today. Longs need stops below 1770.
A break lower is a sell signal targeting 1765 & 1760.
 

We could have strong resistance at 1804/08. A break above 1813 however targets 1828/31. 

Silver longs at strong support at 2030/10 hit my targets of 2060 & 2080, with a high for the day here. Above 2090 this week look for strong resistance at 2140/60.
Shorts need stops above 2180. A break higher is a buy signal targeting 2190 & 2240.
 

Strong support at 2030/10 of course, but longs need stops below 2000. A break lower is a sell signal targeting 1980 & 1950. 

WTI Crude September meets very strong resistance at 9550/9600. Shorts need stops above 9700. 

Shorts at 9550/9600 target 9300/9250. On further losses look for 9050/9000 before a retest of 8750/8700. A break below 8700 can target 8550/00. 

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Gold longs at 1770/65 target 1785/88 & perhaps as far as 1795/1800. Above 1800 look for 1813/15, perhaps as far as 1828/31.

Best support at 1770/65. Longs need stops below 1760. A break lower is a sell signal targeting 1953 then strong support at 1740/35.

AUDUSD first resistance at 6950/70. Shorts need stops above 6980. A break higher targets 7010.

Shorts at first resistance at 6950/70 target 6910/00 then 6870/60. Further losses can target 6830/20.

EURJPY eventually beat resistance at 136.75/95 for the next target of 137.70/80 with a high for the day here. A break above 138.00 signals further gains to 138.70/90.

First support at 136.80/70. A break below 136.50 risks a slide to 135.60/40.

NZDJPY again meets strong resistance at 8435/55. Shorts need stops above 8485. A break higher is a buy signal targeting 8560/70.

Shorts at 8435/55 target 8380 & possibly 8340 for profit taking. Further losses target 8320/10 then strong support at 8280/60. Longs need stops below 8230.

Emini S&P longs at strong support at 4110/4090 work as we bounce towards 4150. On further gains look for 4165, perhaps as far as 4210/20 today for profit taking.
A break higher this week is a buy signal.

Strong support again at 4110/4090. Longs need stops below 4080. A break lower meets strong support at 4030/20. Longs need stops below 4000.

Nasdaq longs at first support at 12850/800 work on the bounce to 13200/250 & 7 month trend line resistance at 13365/385. A high for the day exactly here with a sell off to 13085.
First support at 12900/800. Longs need stops below 12700. A break lower is a sell signal to strong support at 12350/300.

7 month trend line resistance at 13365/385.  A break higher targets 13450, perhaps as far as very strong resistance at 13600/700.

Today’s technical analysis & trade ideas for Emini S&P Nasdaq & Dow Jones

Emini S&P September a low for the day exactly at strong support at 3920/10 & a bounce to the first target of 3940/50.

Nasdaq September a low for the day at first support at 12150/12000.

Emini Dow Jones September a low for the day exactly at support at 31750/650.

Remember when support is broken it usually acts as resistance & vice-versa.

Update daily by 06:00 GMT.

Today’s Analysis.

  

Emini S&P bounces to 3940/50 & above here re-targets first resistance at 4010/20.
A break above 4020 for the next buy signal targeting a sell opportunity at 4080/90.

Strong support at 3920/10 of course. Longs need stops below 3890.
A break lower is a sell signal targeting 3875/70,perhaps as far as 3840/30.

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Nasdaq longs at first support at 12150/12000 can target first resistance at 14400/450.

A break above 14500 however can target 12600 before a retest of last week’s high of 12655/695.
A break above 12700 targets 12900/13000.

First support at 12150/12000, stop below 11900. A break lower is a sell signal targeting 11750/700, perhaps as far as 1 month trend line support at 11500.

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Emini Dow Jones longs at 31750/650 target 31900/32000. If we continue higher look for 32300/400.
Further gains target the 100 & 500 day moving averages at 32650/700.

I prefer buying on weakness at this stage with support again at 31750/650. Longs need stops below 31550.
Strong support at 31400/300. Longs need stops below 31200.

Technical analysis & trade ideas – Gold Silver WTI Crude – Monday 25th July.

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Gold Spot bounced from my buy opportunity at 1680/75. Longs worked perfectly on the bounce to my target of 1705/10 for an easy 25-30 point profit. 

We wrote: Now we have a bullish engulfing candle buy signal so further gains are expected to 1725/27 & probably as far as 1735/38. – Targets hit with a high for the day exactly here in fact.  

  

Silver shorts at resistance at 1895/1905 worked perfectly on the slide to 1850 & 1821. 

Silver then bounced in line with Gold leaving a double bottom buy signal with a hammer candle for confirmation.

WTI Crude could be forming an inverse head & shoulders with neck line at 100.00/100.50.  

 

Remember when support is broken it usually acts as resistance & vice-versa. 

Today’s Analysis. 

Gold higher again as predicted to my 1735/38 target with a high for the day exactly here. Prices then dropped nearly 20 points but outlook remains positive at this stage. Holding first support at 1727/25 targets 1735/38. Above 1740 look for 1753/55 this week. 

Downside is expected to be limited with support at 1727/25 but better support at 1715/10. Longs need stops below 1705.  

  

Silver made a high for the day at first resistance at 1895/1905 on the bounce. Resistance is higher today at 1910/20 but shorts are more risky after the double bottom – a break above 1930 is a buy signal targeting 1975/85, perhaps as far as strong resistance at 2010/30. 

Holding 1910/20 risks a slide to 1860/50 (a low for the day exactly here om Friday), before a retest of 1820/10. 

  

WTI Crude September 100.00/100.50. A break above 101.00 is a buy signal targeting 103.00/50, perhaps as far as 106.00/50.  

Minor support at 9630/00 & again at 9480/40. A break lower can target 9330/00. 

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Gold & silver trade ideas for Friday 22 July 2022

Trade ideas for Friday 22 July 2022

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Gold Spot broke lower to my next target of 1690/85 with a low for the day exactly at my buy opportunity at 1680/75.
Longs worked perfectly on the bounce to my target of 1705/10 for an easy 25-30 point profit.

The bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart is buy signal.

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Gold broke lower as expected to hit my next target & strong support at 1680/75 for profit taking on shorts. Longs here also worked perfectly reaching my target of 1705/10.
Now we have a bullish engulfing candle buy signal so further gains are expected to 1725/27 & probably as far as 1735/38.

Downside is expected to be limited with support at 1699/96. However below 1690 risks a retest of the buying opportunity at 1680/75.
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Silver shorts at resistance at 1895/1905 worked perfectly on the slide to 1850 & 1821.
Silver bounced in line with Gold yesterday leaving a double bottom buy signal with a hammer candle for confirmation.

Silver held 5 ticks from first resistance at 1895/1905 on the bounce. Resistance is higher today at 1910/20 but shorts are more risky after the double bottom.
A break above 1930 is a buy signal targeting 1975/85, perhaps as far as strong resistance at 2010/30.

Holding 1910/20 risks a slide to 1860/50, before a retest of 1820/10.

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EURUSD AUDUSD NZDUSD AUDJPY USDJPY Emini S&P

Today’s technical analysis & trade ideas 

 21 July 2022

EURUSD minor resistance at 1.0200/10 then strong resistance at 1.0260/70. We also have strong resistance at 1.0310/20 & remember we are in a longer term bear trend.
So sooner rather than later, the pair are expected to turn lower (exactly as we did yesterday).
 

First support at 1.0150/40. Longs need stops below 1.0130. A break lower is a sell signal targeting 1.0100, probably as far as 1.0070. 

    

Emini S&P beat resistance at 3910/20 for a buy signal targeting 3960/70 (hit yesterday), perhaps as far as 3990/4000. A high for the day is likely at this stage, although shorts maybe risky.
A break above 4020 is the next buy signal targeting a sell opportunity at 4080/90.
 

I have been waiting for this move since I predicted the low a month ago. The downside should be limited now with support again at 3920/10 of course. Longs need stops below 3890. 

USDJPY longs at strong support at 137.60/40 reach 138.35 & almost 138.60 as the next targets. This offers a 100 pip profit & we DID struggle to beat this level as predicted.
However shorts are too risky. Above 138.70 look for 139.00.
 

Minor support at 137.85/75 held perfectly yesterday but there is better support at 137.60/40 of course. Longs need stops below 137.25. 

 

AUDUSD now meets strong resistance at 6905/15.  Shorts need stops above 6935. A break higher however targets 6970/80, perhaps as far as 6995/99. 

Shorts at strong resistance at 6905/15 target 6840/30 for profit taking. However if we continue lower (we are in a bear trend of course) look for 6780/70. 


 

NZDUSD held 17 pips from strong resistance at 6290/6300. Shorts need stops above 6325. 

First support at 6195/85. Longs need stops below 6165. A break lower is a sell signal targeting 6140 & 6100. 


 

 

AUDJPY higher as expected & can target 9585/95 today. Further gains can retest the June high at 9675/85. 

Good support at 9490/80. Longs need stops below 9460. 

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Forex signals & trade ideas.

Forex signals & trade ideas – Friday 15th July 2022.

Today’s trade ideas with stop loss levels & targets.

AUDUSD broke 6720/10 to hit the next target of 6680 (sorry for the typo yesterday).

NZDUSD trading sideways as we recover from yesterday’s low at 6059 in severely oversold conditions.
This is not a buy signal in my opinion, but is likely to signal a more stable/neutral outlook for today.

AUDJPY beat resistance at 9335/55 for a buy signal.
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AUDUSD break below 6720/10 targets 6680 (a low for the day exactly here yesterday) & 6630/20.

Gains are likely to be limited in the longer term bear trend of course with first resistance at 6770/80. Shorts need stops above 6790.
A break higher meets strong resistance at 6820/30. Shorts need stops above 6845.

NZDUSD hit my next target of 6080 before a bounce from 6059. Gains are likely to be limited despite severely oversold conditions with first resistance at 6135/45.
Expect strong resistance at 6180/90. Shorts need stops above 6210.

A break below 6055 can target 6030/20 perhaps as far as 5980/70.

AUDJPY beat resistance at 9335/55 for a buy signal targeting 9410 (hit yesterday) & 9460/80.  First support at 9345/25. Longs need stops below 9310.

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USDJPY longs at support at 136.75/55 work nicely on the bounce to 139.39 yesterday.

EURJPY shorts at strong resistance at 139.50/70 were offered up to 100 pips profit on the slide to 138.50.

USDJPY bounced 270 pips from our buy level. Outlook remains positive although we are getting overbought at this stage so make sure to take some profit!
Further gains target 139.90/140.00 & 140.50/70.

We are still buyers on weakness in the bull trend with first support at 138.40/20. Unlikely, but if we continue lower look for strong support at 137.60/40. Longs need stops below 137.25.

EURJPY made a high for the day exactly at strong resistance at 139.50/70. Shorts need stops above 139.95. A break higher sees 139.70/50 acting as support for a buy signal targeting 140.50/70,
perhaps as far as 141.30/40.

Shorts at strong resistance at 139.50/70 can target 138.60, perhaps as far as 138.20/10. Below 137.90 risks a slide to 137.30/20 with best support at 136.80/60. Longs need stops below 136.35.
A break lower however is a sell signal targeting 135.90/80 & 135.30/20.

EURUSD lower as expected (initially at least) to my next target of  9955/45, with a low for the day exactly here.

USDCAD beat at 1 year trend line resistance at the June high of 1.3060/80 for a buy signal & we shot higher to 1.3220.
So, 100 pips or more profit if you managed to jump in to a long.

Remember when support is broken it usually acts as resistance & vice-versa.

EURUSD hit the next target of 9955/45 but we have seen a bounce to 1.0037 in severely oversold conditions. Still, gains are likely to be limited with first resistance at 1.0065/75.
Shorts need stops above 1.0090. Next target & sell opportunity at 1.10140/50. Shorts need stops above 1.0175.

A break below 9940 always possible in the bear trend despite oversold conditions, targeting 9910/00, perhaps as far as 9870/50.

USDCAD has reversed from 1.3223 & could retest the break point, which is obviously today’s support at 1.3090/70. Longs need stops below 1.3050.

Longs at 1.3090/70 target 1.3150 & 1.3210/20, with further gains likely eventually towards 1.3300.

Why crypto prices will probably never recover.

Why crypto prices will probably never recover.

 

I read today that the crypto market cap has crashed back below $1 trillion for the first time since January 2021.

We have witnessed (and a minority have suffered from) a drop of 67% from an all-time high of $3 trillion reached back in November 2021. If you have been following my crypto analysis & forecasts on social media,
particularly twitter, you will know that I predicted the markets would begin to fall on December 16th 2021. I have maintained my negative outlook throughout the first half of 2022, even when we have seen the odd bear market bounce.
Selling at most of my resistance levels would have paid off handsomely. So obviously I am now being asked regularly if I am seeing any technical reasons or any signals that crypto markets can start to recover.

However, from what I read, the prices of crypto currencies could continue lower. Singapore-based hedge fund Three Arrows Capital, one of the largest crypto players, failed to meet margin calls last week.
Some positions were liquidated, the Financial Times and others report. Surely more will follow?

 

When commodity prices peak, there is a forced cut back in production as some producers find conditions uneconomic. Actually I read that many crypto miners have shut down their machines
because this activity is no longer profitable.

 

 

 

But with commodities, there is always natural demand, whether it be for energy, metals or food. So eventually demand picks up when prices over shoot to the downside, prices recover,
partly because there is a squeeze on production & finally more producers come back in to the market when prices rise significant. It’s a well rehearsed cycle. Same kind of thing for stock markets.
Euphoria creates severely overbought conditions. Reality starts to bite, perhaps as central banks increase interest rates to slow an over heating economy.
Prices decline, some on forced selling from over leveraged positions and then prices over shoot on the downside. Finally stocks are so cheap & PE ratios so attractive that investors begin buying again
& a new bull market commences.

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So could a similar cycle apply to crypto? Well crypto has some useful functions, could be seen as a store of value, certainly is an efficient method of moving funds. But higher prices in crypto rely on
‘The Greater Fool Theory”. The greater fool theory argues that prices go up because people are able to sell overpriced securities to a “greater fool,” whether or not they are overvalued.
That is, of course, until there are no greater fools left.

I believe most so called investors in crypto in recent years have seen the hype and read about fortunes being made by early investors, triggering FOMO – fear of missing out.
So they buy, not even really understanding what they are buying, in the expectation that ‘Greater Fools’
come along who are prepared to pay higher & higher prices as they chase they get-rich-quick dreams.

 

 

 

Some call this a Ponzi scheme. So a bubble occurs, as a media feeding frenzy develops. So called experts advise viewers to mortgage their homes to buy crypto.
Eventually of course all the fools have bought and there is nobody left to sell to.

Prices start to decline, until panic sets in, margin calls force more selling and prices crash. History of course is littered with examples.




The tulip craze!

In 1593, tulips were introduced in the Netherlands and after contracting a virus that gave their petals a multicolour effect, tulips became widely sought after in the country.
The price of tulips skyrocketed as the craze swept the country. The price of tulips was so inflated that it reached a point where no one could really afford it, which triggered a sell off.
Then, a domino effect took place and bulbs were worth nothing, meaning people would make a loss when selling their tulips.

Some crashes are followed by a slow recovery, which is certainly the case with stock markets.

 

 

The famous 1929 crash collapsed the global economy. The Great Depression hit almost everybody in western societies leading President Roosevelt to launch the New Deal to stimulate the economy.
However it took 25 years for the Dow Jones Industrial Average to recoup its losses.

 

The Dotcom Bubble Burst saw the Nasdaq crash for almost 3 years, up to the end of 2002 but it took 13 years for the market to recoup its losses.

In December 1989, the Nikkei 225, reached its all-time high at nearly 39,000. By December 1990, the Nikkei 225 had lost more than $2 trillion.
The Nikkei 225 has never fully recovered to the level seen in 1989 as I write in June 2022 is only trading at 26000 after a long bull run.

Stock markets recover eventually because the indices are made up of companies which make a profit & pay dividends to share holders (even though the companies that constitute the indices regularly change).

Gold like crypto, is a commodity which pays no dividend but has many uses and has been accepted as a store of value for centuries due to it’s unique properties.

 

 

 

 

 

 

      • Crypto has been described as digital Gold but this argument is a lot weaker than it was before the 2022 crash.
      • Crypto has proved to be no hedge against falling stock markets (& in fact has crashed in line with stock markets over the last decade).
      • It has proved to be no hedge against inflation. (Gold holding up well as crypto crashes).
      • A poor store of value. (Who wants their savings to be changing in value by 10% a week?).
      • Has no rarity value, with over 18,000 currently available to own. We cannot make more land or Gold. If I was smart enough I could create as many coins as I like. (Unfortunately I am not!!)

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Regulation. 

Finally, the Biden administration also wants to explore a digital version of the dollar just as China aims to introduce a central bank digital currency,
with more and more people using smartphones to make payments and handle their finances. Virtually all banks everywhere now ask for proof of the source of funds for large transfers and increasingly even for small ones.
If you’re buying or selling real estate, a copy of the sales contract generally satisfies the inquiry.

Additional hoops must be jumped through in countries that impose capital and/or exchange restrictions to control the flow of money coming and going.

The Patriot Act, passed by Congress about a month and a half after 9/11, added provisions to the 1970 Bank Secrecy Act that set standards for banks to identify customers,
maintain records required them to report cash transactions over $10,000.

US federal law requires banks to have customer-identification programs approved by their boards. When opening accounts for customers, banks must collect and verify customer-provided information, such as birth dates,
addresses and copies of drivers’ licenses or passports.
Civil and criminal penalties for money laundering were increased, and banks can face enforcement actions for shoddy anti-money laundering practices, whether or not actual money-laundering crimes by their customers are alleged.

Most banks have faced increased regulatory compliance costs, in part because they must do more to verify who their customers are, and try to get a sense of what they do, and with whom they may be doing it.

Bankers have had to hire more consultants, more compliance staff and buy more anti-money laundering software to meet the demands of not only the Patriot Act but also the Dodd-Frank law, which aims to curtail risky behaviors by financial companies
that played a major role in the 2008 financial crisis.

How can governments & regulators allow crypto to remain unchecked? The SEC just announced it would increase the staff of its Cyber Unit from 30 to 50 and rename it the Crypto Assets and Cyber Unit to bolster the enforcement of regulations in cryptocurrencies.
The will fundamentally change how cryptocurrency markets work.

The crypto bubble has burst, the speculators got burned & I think history will judge the crypto craze as one of the classic bubbles of all time, along the with the tulip craze of 1637 & The South Sea Bubble of 1720.

Crypto has much to offer & will always exist, but I have never seen it as an investment and I never will. Please leave your comments below.


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Crypto coins could recover in the short term – Buy signal for Bitcoin, Ripple & Ethereum.

 

 

https://youtu.be/oMuar3oR9tk

 

 

Bitcoin beat strong 200 week moving average resistance at 22500/600 SO AT LAST WE HAVE A BUY SIGNAL!!! 

Ripple making a break above 1 month trend line resistance at 3500 for a buy signal!! (I have not written that for a long time) targeting 3580 & even as far as 3850/3900.
I would not rule out 4300/4400 in fact.
 

Ethereum holding above 1500 is a buy signal!

 

 

Bitcoin beats strong 200 week moving average resistance at 22500/600 for a buy signal initially targeting 24600/700. We should struggle to beat this level, but I think shorts could be risky now.
A break above 24750 signals gains as far as 26300.
 

Obviously bulls must hold prices above 23000/22500.

Ripple through 1 month trend line resistance at 3500 for a buy signal targeting 3850/3900, 4000 &even as far as strong resistance at 4300/4400. 

Support at 3450/3350 if we fall this far. 

 

Ethereum beat strong resistance at 1250/1300 for a short term buy signal targeting 1400 & probably resistance at 1500/1550. Targets hit as we reach 1632.
Further gains are possible to 1690/1700, perhaps as far as 1800/1850.
 

First support at 1500/1460. A break lower targets 1400/1380. 

 

 

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Simply click here and open an account with our preferred broker. Deposit a minimum of $5000 and you’ll get an email every morning with all our trade ideas, signals & analysis on 20 markets by 4am GMT!!

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Free weekend webinar – Outlook for dollar & stock markets after Friday’s non farm payroll.

Free weekend webinar – Outlook for dollar & stock markets after Friday’s non farm payroll.

https://webinarkit.com/webinar/registration/628178373339421b289c7fc9

Starts Saturday 4th June at 10am UK time – repeated throughout the weekend

✓ Plus show you how I would place my orders to take advantage of low risk trade opportunities

✓ Show you how I analyse the markets to spot low risk trade opportunities

✓ Show you how I identify my targets for profit taking.

 Identify the correct stop loss level to ensure losses are minimised

Thursday June 2nd – Forex trade ideas & signals.


Today’s forex trade ideas & signals.

Click for today’s video analysis
 

EURUSD broke first support at 1.0690/70 to hold 5 pips above the next target of 1.0620/00. Longs here today need stops below 1.0590. A break lower is a sell signal targeting 1.0575/65, perhaps as far as 1.0520/15. 

First resistance at 1.0675/95. Shorts need stops above 1.0705. Further gains target 1.0740/45 before a retest of 1.0780/85. Strong resistance at 1.0800/20. Shorts need stops above 1.0835. 

USDCAD has bounced to 1.2660/70. We should struggle to beat this level but if we continue higher look for a sell opportunity at 1.2700/1.2720. Shorts need stops above 1.2740. 

Holding 1.2660/70 sees a retest of 1.2620/05. A break below 1.2595 risks a slide to 1.2565/55, perhaps as far as 1.2525/20. 

Nick Leeson vs Jason Sen | TTB #63 | Trading Battle – 3 Jun 2022

AUDUSD made a high for the day exactly at strong resistance at 7230/50.  Shorts need stops above 7270. 

We held just 9 pips above minor support at 7145/40, but the best support today is at 7140/30. Longs need stops below 7115. A break lower is a sell signal targeting 7080/70, perhaps as far as 7030/20. 

NZDUSD collapsed from 6565/70 as expected to make a low for the day at first support at 6490/70 again yesterday. Longs need stops below 6460. A break lower targets 6450 then 6435/25, perhaps as far as strong support at 6410/00. Longs need stops below 6385. 

First resistance at 6530/50. Shorts need stops above 6570. If we continue higher look for 6620/30.