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14 things I wish I had known before I started trading.

“We must remove the emotional element as quickly as possible in trading. If you can do it before you put on a position, you have a good start.” Burt Dohmen

 

How to enter, exit, manage trades & manage your account.

 1. Do you fear the price will not hit your entry level? 

Do you watch the price closely & then jump in before it reaches your entry price?

 Wait for the correct entry points, do not chase the price because you fear you will miss the move.

 Be prepared to miss a trade by a small margin. It will happen. Accept it or you will continuously enter at unfavourable levels.

 

  2.How much of your account do you risk per trade?

ALWAYS risk exactly the same amount. You never know which trades will work and which will not.
I am constantly surprised at the outcome of trades to this day.

 3. Do you set a stop loss order when you enter the trade or do you try to stop loss manually when you cannot take any more pain and panic to exit?

 You must set a stop loss when you enter your order. This is when you are experiencing no emotion and can think straight.

 It is the only way to guarantee you will minimise risk. Setting your stop-loss should be an automatic process when you enter your order.

 

 4. Do your analysis when you have no open positions. Only then will you have no bias. Try to identify low-risk entry levels in the direction of the prevailing trend. (Eg. Buy at support in a bull trend). 


5. Enter your targets at the appropriate levels that you have identified in your analysis. Wait for the markets to go to your target. 

Do not watch the prices go up and down, along with your p&l. Find something else to do while the trade plays out. 

6.  The only way to minimise your loss and maximise your profit is to exercise the correct risk vs reward ratio.

 7. This means that you should only risk 10 pips in order to make 15 pips or more

 8. This is only possible if you wait for the low-risk entry points because then you can have a sensible stop loss within the correct risk vs reward ratio. If you get in too early (by buying above the support level for fear of missing the opportunity), you increase your risks and decrease your potential profit.

9. Therefore you must be able to accept missing a trade by a few pips, not get upset and you must be able to then wait for the next opportunity. This is part of trading. We all miss trades that would have made a profit. You cannot get every single profitable trade.

 Do not ever chase a trade as it moves away from your entry point if you did not manage to enter in time. So often prices will give you a second chance by retesting your entry level.

10.  You must risk exactly the same amount on every trade and this amount should be no more than 2% of your trading account. (I recommend 1%).


The only way to avoid being emotional in a trade is when the amount of money at risk is not significant enough to cause you pain. You must be able to move on to the next trade without carrying negative thoughts with you. 

 By managing your risk in this way, if you have 5 or 6 losses in a row you are only down about 10%. This means that you can continue to trade without any significant problems.

You won’t be in a state of panic & desperation. 

 If you trade a bigger size you are trying too hard, being greedy and you are hoping to make unrealistic amounts of money in the short-term. Trading is about making small amounts of money in the long term to build an income. It is not about making big amounts of money in the short-term. Losing a large sum can lead to revenge trading, which never ends well.

 

 Consistent trading is key. Successful trading is boring!

 Trading too big will ensure you blow your whole account eventually. I absolutely guarantee this. You may have a huge gain first, but eventually you will lose everything. 

 If you have entered a trade & feel nervous, this is almost always because your trade size is too large. It is not the fear of losing, it is knowing that you cannot afford the loss.

 If you are not relaxed when the trade is open, you should cut the size down. If you have sleepless nights & dreams about your open trades it means you are risking too much. 

 When you become consistent and can make profitable trades the money will build very quickly and if you continue to risk no more than 2% on each trade the amount of money you will risk on each trade will obviously grow in line with your account.

 

Practice this in order to build consistency. You will be amazed how the profits grow. 

 Set targets for your trade before you enter it according to your analysis. You cannot decide when to exit without a trading plan. 

 If you do not set a target for the trade before you enter, how do you know when you need to exit? Your decision will be purely emotional, spontaneous and not based on analysis.

 When you can do all of the above you will have this incredible feeling of being able to trust yourself. You will be able to enter trades confidently without experiencing any negative emotions or thoughts. 

You will be able to accept a loss and move on to the next trade without hesitation. 

 

Here are some ideas of how to exit when you are targets are hit

 You can scale out of the position for example selling one-third or one-half when your first target is hit.

 This satisfies your need to bank some profit but also gives you the opportunity to benefit from further favourable moves in prices. 

 At the same time you can trail your stop loss in the direction of the profit so that if the market turns around and reverses you protect some of your profit.

 By getting out in one, two or three different stages you satisfy your desire to take a profit without getting out of the whole position too early.

While you are learning to trade it is important to stick to the rules. At this stage it is not important to make money but it is important to build and ingrain good trading habits in your mind, that will allow you to make consistent profits in the future.

 

 

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Simply click here and open an account with our preferred broker. Deposit a minimum of $5000 and you’ll get an email every morning with all our trade ideas, signals & analysis on 20 markets by 4am GMT!!

You will also get private mentor sessions with Jason Sen whenever you need them. At no extra cost!! For all the details on the subscription click here.

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Huge savings, the best technical analysis & trade ideas and a free course.

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I predicted the beginning of the crypto crash on 16th November 2021.

I predicted the beginning of the crypto crash on 16th November 2021.

On November 16th 2021 I made a video warning of a potential crypto crash, with Bitcoin initially expected to drop 20% immediately from the record high. (See proof in the YouTube video below).
I believe I was the first person to make such a prediction.
Since then I have predicted crypto to continue to break support levels & head lower. The crash has been deep & way beyond what anyone else had expected back in November or December 2021.
As I write today, Bitcoin has lost abut 70% of it’s value in just 7 brutal months. 

/https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XlK0xIgctrw&feature=youtu.be

Here is today’s update:

Bitcoin broke lower at last as expected & crashed 3000 pips to all targets as far as the 200 week moving average at 22250/150.

Ripple headed lower as expected hitting my targets as far as 3350/3300, 3200 & 3000

Ethereum has crashed as predicted to all targets as far as 1130/00 & would you believe this is almost the exact low at this stage.

Today’s Analysis

Bitcoin has crashed as far as my target of the 200 week moving average at 22250/150. We over ran as far as 20800 but has seen a good recovery to 23300 so the important support has in fact held.
If this does not hold over the summer (although it is likely to initially) it is goodnight crypto – last one out put the chairs on the table!

Bulls are praying that the crash low is in – I cannot say I believe this but we are certainly seeing a bout to first 23.6% Fibonacci resistance at 23250/350. Above 23400 opens the door to 24000.
Unlikely but if we continue higher we could test strong resistance at 24900/25300.

Ripple gains are likely to be limited in the crypto crash. Holding very minor support at 3120/00 allows a recovery to first resistance at 3220/40. Above 3300 meets strong resistance at 3400/30.

We held just below 3000 but eventually are expected to target 2500. Just depends on how far the bounce can go before the next collapse.

Ethereum continues lower as predicted with another important sell signal as losses accelerate to the downside hitting all targets as far as 1130/00.
Gains are likely to be limited with minor resistance at 1290/1310 & 1425/45. If we unexpectedly continue higher expect strong resistance at 1650/1700.

A break below 1070 (likely eventually) targets 905890 & we even have a gap to fill at at 792.

Please email me if you need this report updated or Whatsapp: +66971910019 – To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk

Jason Sen’s 21 rules of survival in the markets.

These are the 21 rules I have taught myself by failing consistently in the early part of my
trading career. I still make some of these mistakes today.

I am not a gifted trader, I have just tried to learn from my mistakes.

      1. Identify the trend according to the time period that you trade and never open a position against this trend.
        It sounds so simple but it is too easy to see a bull trend that you did not manage to buy, because prices did not dip to your entry level or raced away from you
        and you did not want to chase it. Next thing you find yourself looking for reasons to go short just only because the market has rallied. Traders do it all the time…
        they know they should be long but they think it cannot go any further at this stage and find themselves shorting in to an uptrend only to lose money.
        They step back and think how did I get short when my original plan was to buy in to longs?

”Success depends upon previous preparation, and without such preparation there is sure to be failure.” Confucius

 

 2. The professional trader buys BECAUSE prices have rallied.

Buying strength works. The rule of survival is not to “buy low, sell high”, but to “buy and sell higher” or ”sell and buy lower”. Buying a break above a resistance level is a good
trading strategy that works over time but many of us find it hard to do because we think that logic tells us what goes up must come down.
In fact what goes up in financial markets often keeps going up. It is wiser to try to jump on to a moving train and catch a ride than to stand in front of it and hope it stops.

 

3. Don’t enter a trade until it has been well researched and planned or you will have no confidence in your decision.

Do your own research, never trade on someone else’s hunch. All the work on a trade has to be done before it is entered so you already know where you will exit,
whether the trade goes in to profit or loss. Trading is only stressful when you have not made a proper plan of each stage of the trade as you are forced to make rash decisions
which will be dominated by emotion in a moving market. That is when panic or greed dominates your thought process.
Make a plan and stick to it, do not change your exit plans once in the trade.

 

‘The general who wins the battle makes many calculations in his temple before the battle is fought.
The general who loses makes but few calculations beforehand.’ Sun Tzu

 

4. Be patient.

If a trade is missed, wait for a correction to occur before putting the trade on or be ready to buy a break above resistance (or sell on a break of support).

“My first rule is not to lose money. Losing an opportunity is minor in comparison,
because there are always new opportunities around the corner.” Burt Dohmen

 

5. Be patient.

Once you have entered a trade let the market do the work. Time is not a factor. You have already planned your stop and your ”take profit” level but you do not know
how long it will take for one of these exits to be hit. Watching every trade in the market will only cause you to doubt yourself.

6. Be patient.

Hold on to winning trades until they hit your target. Don’t take a small profit because of your emotions. Stick with the plan you made before entering the trade as
this was when you were calm, unemotional and focused.

 

“We must remove the emotional element as quickly as possible in trading…
If you can do it before you put on a position, you have a good start.”

 

7. Never ever move your stop losses further away.

You will diminish your risk/reward which is key to your long term survival. You waste mental capital when you nurse a losing trade for longer than planned. |
You miss out on the next opportunity that could have made a big profit and covered your loss on this trade.

 

“Experienced traders control risk, inexperienced traders chase gains.” Alan Farley

 

8. Never, ever under any condition, add to a losing trade.

Do not “average” into a position by adding to it as your losses increase, in the hope prices will turn in your favour. 

 

“The elements of good trading are: 1. Cutting losses, 2. Cutting losses, and 3. Cutting losses.
If you can follow these three rules, you may have a chance.” 
Ed Seykota

 

9. Keep a trading journal.

Make notes on what worked and what did not work. What should be repeated and what should never be repeated! Learn from your mistakes and your successes.
Regularly review performance, and improve.

 

”It’s okay to make mistakes. Mistakes are our teachers – they help us to learn.”  John Bradshaw

 

10. When you suffer a severe loss or even make an abnormal profit take a break and stop trading for several days.

Take a break until the end of the week at least. Your emotions will be running high and this is a bad time to be trading.
The urge “to get the money back” is extreme and leads to poor decisions. After a good run your confidence will be too high and greed sets in.
This is when you are most vulnerable to a big hit. Instead take a break, give yourself a reward and come back down to earth. 

 

”For a man to conquer himself is the first and noblest of all victories.” Plato 

 

11. Do not vary your trading size.

You do not know which trades will work and which ones will get stopped out for a loss (although we all think we do!). If you vary your size depending on your level of
confidence in the trade your risk/reward strategy will not work. Stick to a minimum 1:2 risk v reward. Risk $1 to make $2 and trade the same amount of capital each time. 

 

12. Often no position is the right position.

You do not have to be in a position all the time. You cannot possibly have a good idea of where the market is going all day, every day.
Your job is to identify opportunities and wait to try to enter the market at the levels that you have decided will minimise your risk while maximising your reward. 

 

”He who knows when he can fight and when he cannot, will be victorious.” Sun Tzu

 

13. Markets form their tops in violence; markets form their lows in quiet conditions.

If a market is reaching major resistance and is becoming very volatile it can signal a top.
 

14. If you are trading for entertainment, like going to horse racing or the casino, set a monthly budget, risk what you can afford to lose and have fun. 

But if you want to make a living, treat it as your business. Trading is simple so use common sense. Make a well thought out plan and execute it.
Ensure you preserve your capital and do not risk losing it all in a short period of time or on a few trades. You cannot make a profit if you do not stay in business. 

 

15. You need to give yourself a goal to attain.

This is true for any “real job”. If you have no goals, you could find yourself trading aimlessly for most of the month, and finding out that you are in the red
because of a few trades which you ran too far the wrong way or perhaps trades you shouldn’t have made. The profit target is a good exercise to help you focus.
You know what you need to achieve and you know when you achieve it, so you know when to stop. Simple!

16. Make your target realistic in relation to your trading capital.

You would not start a business selling a product, invest £20,000 and expect to make £100,000 in the first year. Trading is the same so set a realistic target – £1650 per month or
£420 per week for example provides 100% return per year. You will not find many hedge funds that can do that consistently!! So if you make £100 in a morning
you have had a terrific day and should be very careful not to risk losing it. £100 per day may or may not seem a lot of money to you,
but if it takes 3 hours to make it each day you have a lot of free time.

Imagine if you could average just 1% profit on your account per day. 20% per month! Of course this is much more difficult than it sounds,
but my point is that small wins add up very quickly. 

 

17. Once you decide on a realistic daily target as part of your business plan, you must stop trading when this target is reached.

Do not feel guilty that it is 10am and you have made your target. If you do this every day you can have a life that few can dream of.

 If you have reached your profit target, remember, you earned it. You have done the research, found profitable trades and executed them with patience and discipline.
How will you feel at the end of the day if you have lost it all…or worse made a loss on the day? This happens to traders every day…do not let it happen to you.  

 

18. NEVER EVER EVER lose more in a day than your profit target!

Detach yourself from the money and think of it as keeping score. The only way you can judge if you are being successful and making the right decisions is if you are
making consistent profit. Many traders find they are clearer in the morning and do not trade in the afternoon.

 

 

19. Trade only when you have a clear head and you are focused.

I know managers of independent trading offices. One of their responsibilities is to risk manager the traders in these offices. If a trader steps outside of his/her agreed risk parameters
by trading too big, running trades too far in to a loss or trading too frequently it is a sign that the trader is not focused and in control. Often the trader is hung over after a night out
or having a difficulty at home, is under financial pressure, but what ever the reason that he/she is distracted, this will usually be manifested negatively in trading results.

If you do not feel in the mood or find your self distracted with issues outside of trading, stay away from the markets or you will make life much harder for yourself by compounding your worries.

 

20. Do NOT trade when you are very stressed, very tired or drunk!

It is usually wise to avoid late Friday when traders are closing positions for the weekend. Periods of low volume are also often difficult times to trade,
for example Monday mornings and when there is a bank holiday but the market is open, or a holiday in the US when Europe is open. 

For the same reason the morning of a big number like Non Farm Payroll can be thin and tricky.

21. Trading is not the same gambling (despite what many will tell you).

One reason being, it is possible to put the odds in your favour. The main reason is that there is no predetermined start and end to the game. If you bet on a horse race, a roll of the dice,
a deal of the cards or a spin of the wheel, there is a clear start and end of the bet and there are only two out comes – win or lose and you already know what you could lose
or what you may win at the end of each race/roll/hand/spin, once you place your bet.

When you trade you decide when the bet starts because that is when you enter the trade. You decide when the game ends as that is when you exit or are forced to exit the trade.
Even when the market is closed the game is still being played if you have a position open. In between the start and the end there are endless potential outcomes because
you can win or lose almost any amount (that is in your trading account) within that time.
No one will stop the game for you unless you run out of margin and lose everything….only you decide.

This is why you need to exercise extreme discipline & self control.

 

Trading can be a great way to make a living. You do not have rent on an office, shop or warehouse, no stock to manage, no staff to pay,
no security issues, no customers, no invoicing, no cash flow problems (if you make a profit it is in your account instantly).

 

Follow me

YouTube.com/daytradeideas
Telegram https://t.me/daytradeideas
https://www.linkedin.com/company/day-trade-ideas-com

 

Special offer! Get our most popular subscription for free, saving £199 per month!
How can you get this deal?

Simply click here and open an account with our preferred broker. Deposit a minimum of $5000 and you’ll get an email every morning with all our trade ideas, signals & analysis on 20 markets by 4am GMT!!

You will also get private mentor sessions with Jason Sen whenever you need them. At no extra cost!! For all the details on the subscription click here.

As a special bonus, I will give you my Complete technical analysis & day trading course for free when you have been trading with us for 3 months – A saving of £399!!

Huge savings, the best technical analysis & trade ideas and a free course.

You’ll save £996 in just the first 3 months, as you build your account with a trading veteran with over 34 years experience!!

For more information contact jason@daytradeideas.co.uk

The 7 deadly sins of trading

The 7 deadly sins of trading.

        1. The first sin is moving your stop further from your entry price, because it is close to being activated. Many traders commit this sin as they cannot face taking a loss.
          They imagine the market is just about to turn in their favour
          and if they just move the stop a little they will not have to crystalise the loss. Running your losses is never the right thing to do.
           
      1. Adding to a losing trade in the hope prices suddenly turn around in your favour. this is worse than point 1!! Adding to a losing trade can only amplify the potential losses.
        There is nothing wrong with averaging in to a position if this is the original plan. However adding to a losing trade in the hope of a rebound in prices is not a long term winning strategy.
        Successful traders make discipline a habit & control losses.
         
      2. Risking more than 5% of your account on one trade. (I recommend only risking 1% but many traders cannot stick to this amount). If you risk 5% (or less) of your trading capital on each trade you can
        withstand 20 losing trades before you are out of business.

        Making as much as 5%+ on a trade is a very big return and when compounded quickly makes for an enormous return. Therefore you do not need to and should never risk more than
        5% of your capital on one trade.
        Trading too big also clouds your judgement, especially when the trade starts to go against you. Keeping each trade to within a manageable amount should stop you from panicking.
         
      3. Losing more on a trade than the amount you intended to make. Risk vs Reward is probably the most important part of any trade. Never ever risk losing more than you plan to make from a trade.
        Even if your analysis & trade selection has more than a 50% success rate, you will find it hard to make a profit in the longer term if you do not limit losses & run profits.
         
      4. Letting a good profit turn into a loss due to greed or poor discipline. Think about it – it’s obvious. If you are staring at a good profit on a trade, the very least you should do is move your stop to break even.
        This at least gives you a ‘free no-risk trade’. Taking half of the profit can be a good strategy. Many successful traders try to get their stop to break even as soon as possible to create as many risk free
        trades as possible each day.

         
      5. Varying position size. You believe a trade will be a big winner so you bet more. I find the best strategy is to bet exactly the same amount on every trade. By this I mean the same monetary amount.
        Depending on where you set your stop each time this may mean varying the contract size. Vary the contract size but never the monetary amount you risk.
        In my experience it is impossible to know which trades will perform better than others and to this day I am still surprised at which trades work and which fail.
         
      6. Not setting a stop loss when you enter a trade. The fastest way to destroy your account. You simply must know exactly where you will exit a losing position before you enter it.
        Failure to manage money with discipline is the number one reason why so many traders lose everything  in their account.

Follow me

YouTube.com/daytradeideas
Telegram https://t.me/daytradeideas
https://www.linkedin.com/company/day-trade-ideas-com

Special offer! Get our most popular subscription for free, saving £199 per month! How can you get this deal?

Simply click here and open an account with our preferred broker. Deposit a minimum of $10,000 and you’ll get an email every morning with all our trade ideas, signals & analysis on 20 markets by 4am GMT!!

You will also get private mentor sessions with Jason Sen whenever you need them. At no extra cost!! For all the details on the subscription click here.

As a special bonus, I will give you my Complete technical analysis & day trading course for free when you have been trading with us for 3 months – A saving of £399!!

Huge savings, the best technical analysis & trade ideas and a free course.

You’ll save £996 in just the first 3 months, as you build your account with a trading veteran with over 34 years experience!!

For more information contact jason@daytradeideas.co.uk

How I use the Stochastic Oscillator

Stochastic Oscillator.

(See my special off at the bottom of the page)

The Stochastic Oscillator is a momentum indicator that compares the closing price to the price range over a given time period. In other words it shows the close relative to the range over a set number of periods.
In a bull trend prices should tend to close near the upper end of the range. In a bear trend, prices tend to close near the low of the range. Therefore the Stochastic Oscillator is designed to follow the speed or momentum of the market.
The stochastic oscillator contains two lines. The first line is the %K, which is essentially the raw measure used to formulate the idea of momentum behind the oscillator. The second line is the %D, which is simply a moving average of the %K.

The %D line is considered to be the more important of the two lines as it is seen to produce better signals. The stochastic oscillator generally uses the past 14 trading periods in its calculation.
As a rule, momentum changes direction before the trend, therefore divergences in the Stochastic Oscillator can be used to indicate potential reversals in trends.

 

If the Stochastic Oscillator is starting to turn lower in a bull trend or is having lower highs when price is showing higher highs, this indicates that momentum is changing.
Price is failing to close in the upper area of the range despite the continuation of the bull trend.
This is my favourite indicator and I also find it useful for identifying overbought and oversold levels. Note: I only follow the slow Stochastic Oscillator.

The Stochastic Oscillator is above 50 when the close is in the upper half of the range and below 50 when the close is in the lower half. Low readings (below 20) indicate that price is near its low for the given time period.
High readings (above 80) indicate that price is near its high for the given time period.

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The stochastic as an overbought & oversold indicator.

The oscillator ranges from 0 to 100, making it easy to identify overbought and oversold levels. No matter how fast or how far a market moves, the Stochastic Oscillator will always fluctuate within this range.
Traditional settings use 80 as the overbought threshold and 20 as the oversold threshold. Readings above 80 for the 20-day Stochastic Oscillator would indicate that the underlying security was trading near the top of its 20-day high-low range.
Readings below 20 occur when a security is trading at the low end of its high-low range.

It is important to note that oversold readings are not necessarily bullish and markets will remain oversold for long periods of time in a bear trend. Closing levels consistently near the bottom of the range indicate sustained selling pressure.
Watch for big red bodied candles!

Overbought readings are not necessarily bearish. A market can and will remain overbought for very long periods of time in a bull trend. Closing levels that are consistently near the top of the range indicate sustained buying pressure.
Watch for big blue bodied candles!

In the chart below you can clearly see the strong bull trend indicated by a red trend line, to the right of the chart. The stochastic becomes overbought at an early stage of the rally & remains severely overbought.
A trader selling in to shorts in this bull trend would potentially wipe out his account and many traders have made this mistake!

Therefore the Stochastic Oscillator must only be used as a potential buy signal (when combined with other technical analysis tools) in a bull trend or a sideways trending market.
See point A and B in the chart example above.

If the market experiences a negative short term correction in a longer term bull trend and becomes oversold on the Stochastic Oscillator, this could present an opportunity to buy back in to longs.
Ideally a trader will be looking for suitable support levels to enter this trade, rather than just buy blindly. A bounce from oversold conditions in a bull trend can often be very steep offering quick profits.

Note that when the stochastic crosses back above the blue 20 line in the example above, this acts as confirmation of a potential move higher. Some traders would use this as a buy signal,
confident that the bull trend has resumed.

The Stochastic Oscillator must only be used as a potential sell signal (when combined with other technical analysis tools) in a bear trend or a sideways trending market.
If a market experiences a bullish correction in a longer term bear trend and becomes overbought on the Stochastic Oscillator, this could present an opportunity to sell short.
Ideally a trader will be looking for suitable resistance levels to enter this trade. Or in a reverse of the bullish example above, a cross below the 80 line could be used as the sell signal,
indicating that the bear trend has resumed.

Bull & Bear Divergences.

A negative or bearish divergence forms when a new high in a bull trend is not confirmed with a new high in the Stochastic Oscillator. This shows decreasing upward momentum in the trend & could indicate a potential reversal.
In other words, a bearish divergence forms when price hits a higher high, but the Stochastic Oscillator forms a lower high.

 

 

 

For timing purposes we would look for a bearish confirmation, such as a break below an upward sloping trend line coupled with the stochastic crossing below the 80 line, before entering a short trade.
Just as a market can remain overbought for long periods of time, several bearish divergences can form & timing a sell off on the bearish divergence alone is too risky.
Wait for confirmation from candle formations and other technical analysis tools! See example below.

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A bullish divergence forms when price records a lower low, but the Stochastic Oscillator forms a higher low. This shows less downside momentum that could indicate a potential bullish reversal.

The half way point or 50 level on the Stochastic Oscillator is also worth watching. A Stochastic Oscillator cross above 50 signals that prices are trading in the upper half of their range for the given period
and is an added positive signal or confirmation of a continued move higher.

A cross below 50 means prices are trading in the bottom half of the period and suggests an added negative signal or confirmation of a continued move lower. In fact the half way mark can act as a support or resistance area.
This is not the strongest of signals but just keep an eye on it for confirmation of the trend!

Like all technical indicators, it is important to use the Stochastic Oscillator in conjunction with other technical analysis tools.
Volume, support/resistance and breakouts can be used to confirm or refute signals produced by the Stochastic Oscillator.

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Using the stochastic to generate trade signals.

So you should be familiar with how the Stochastic Oscillator is used to identify the momentum of a trend & how it can be used as an overbought or oversold indicator.
We have seen how once a divergence is spotted we can use confirmation in price to generate a tradable signal.

Crossovers are commonly used to identify other buy and sell signals. In the chart example below see how signals are generated when the fast blue line crosses below the slow red line, when prices are overbought.
A break below the 80 line helps to confirm the negative signal or can in itself be used to trigger a sell signal.

Watch out for false signals – remember selling short in a bull trend is high risk & therefore we are likely to get false signals.

A bullish crossover of the fast blue line above the slow red line, when price is oversold triggers a buy signal.
This is a low risk buy signal as the market is in a longer term bull trend.
A cross of both lines back above the 20 line is an added buy signal.

Remember to use these signals with your other technical analysis tools to build a picture of what is happening with price
and when to trade it in the direction of the prevailing trend.

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Follow me

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Telegram https://t.me/daytradeideas
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Special offer! Get our most popular subscription for free, saving £199 per month! How can you get this deal?

Simply click here and open an account with our preferred broker. Deposit a minimum of $10,000 and you’ll get an email every morning with all our trade ideas, signals & analysis on 20 markets by 4am GMT!!

You will also get private mentor sessions with Jason Sen whenever you need them. At no extra cost!! For all the details on the subscription click here.

As a special bonus, I will give you my Complete technical analysis & day trading course for free when you have been trading with us for 3 months – A saving of £399!!

Huge savings, the best technical analysis & trade ideas and a free course.

You’ll save £996 in just the first 3 months, as you build your account with a trading veteran with over 34 years experience!!

For more information contact jason@daytradeideas.co.uk

Pareto principle – The 80/20 rule. 

 

Pareto principle – The 80/20 rule. 

The 80/20 rule is one of the principles I trade by.  No matter what your area of specialty is, you’ve probably heard about the “Pareto principle” or the “80/20 rule”.
It is applied in business studies, sales, economy and many other endeavors. Here’s how the 80-20 rule can help optimize your trading and boost your trading profits.

Pareto’s discovery

Wikipedia defines the Pareto principle as a principle which states that, for many events, roughly 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes.
For example, in business – where it is considered a very important rule: 80% of your sales come from 20% of your clients.

The origin of this principle came from an Italian economist named Vilfredo Pareto who observed in 1906 that 80% Italy’s land was owned by 20% of the population.
There is an unlimited number of areas where the Pareto principle. Some people even apply it to their lives as human beings.
Blogger Yaro Starak has a great post about how the 80/20 rule can change your life, and author Richard Koch wrote a book about living by this rule.


Boosting profits

If 80% of your trading profits comes from 20% of your transactions, these 20% have to be the large winners, or what is commonly referred to as “trends”.
To prove this point, assuming that you executed all the trades the system signaled, there will be four types of outcomes:

Small winners

Large winners

Small losses (which will happen in any system and are costs of doing trading business)

Large losses (which should be in the small losses category as long you use a stop loss).

If you sum those up, what happens is the small winners and the small losses will balance each other out, and you’re mostly left with the large winners.
This way the large wins will make more than 80% of your trading account profits.
So how do we catch the large winners?

Use profit targets far enough to cover at least 2 to 3 times your stop-loss value. This will increase the probability of catching big moves in the market.
A little back testing work can help you determine the optimum profits target value.

Minimizing losses

Trading losses can’t be avoided; they are just part of the business. Anyone who tells you otherwise is not being honest. I’ve never seen a real trader who doesn’t lose money from time to time.
The good news however, is we can minimize them.
Using the Pareto efficiency principle, our target is eliminating the few behaviors that contribute to more than 80% of the trading losses.
Those behaviors can be the few that “happen occasionally” and traders don’t pay much attention to them. They are typically: chasing entry levels, day-trading in volatile times such as
important news release times and acting on trading impulses or emotions. Get rid of those, and you’ve eliminated just about 80% of your trading losses.

Trading is the ultimate “less is more” profession, but it’s also extremely difficult for most people to come to grips with this fact by accepting the following:

80% of trading should be simple and without stress, 20% is more difficult.

80% of profits come from 20% of trades. 80% of the time the market is not worth trading, 20% of the time you should find low risk trading opportunities. 80% of the time you should not be in a trade, 20% you can be.
80% of trades should be on the daily chart time frame, 20% can be other time frames. 80% of trading success is a direct result of trading psychology and money management, 20% is from strategy / system.
Let’s delve into each of the above points a little deeper and see how you can start applying them to your trading, and hopefully start improving it, significantly.

80% Simple, 20% Difficult

This one is easy. Most of what we do as traders is sit in front of our computers and look at prices going up or down or sideways; determining market direction and finding trades is not hard,
people make it hard.

The difficult part of trading is controlling yourself and not over-trading, not risking too much per trade, not jumping back into the market on emotion after a big win or a loss, etc.
In short, controlling your own behavior and mindset, as well as properly managing your money are the hardest parts of trading, and traders tend to spend less of their time & focus on these more difficult aspects of trading,
probably about 20%, when they should be spending about 80% of their time on them.

80% of profits come from 20% of trades

We absolutely must wait patiently for high-probability trade setups, rather than the high-frequency trading style that tends to put so many traders ‘out of business’. I
t’s absolutely true that most of my trading profits come from a small percentage of my trades. 

80% of the time I am not trading, 20% of the time I ‘might’ be. I don’t like to risk money on a setup that isn’t ‘screaming’ at me or what I like to say is “damn obvious”.
Most traders like to trade a higher-frequency trading style, and it’s not a coincidence that somewhere around 80 to 90% of them lose money.
They are losing money because they are trading way too much and not being patient or disciplined enough to wait for their strategy to really come together and give them a high-probability entry signal.

”You don’t need to trade often. If you can catch one or two moves to the targets during the day with good size, you can make a good living and keep trading costs down.”

Do you see the connection between the fact that most traders lose money (around 80%) and about the same amount of time the market is really not worth trading?
Markets chop around a lot, and a lot of the time the price action is simply meaningless. As a price action trader, our job is to analyze the price action and have the discipline to not trade during the
choppy (meaningless) price action and wait for the 20% or so market conditions that are worth trading.

The main thing that separates the professionals from the amateurs in this business is patience and not over-trading. Traders tend to negate their trading edge by trading during the 80% of the time
when the market is not worth trading. Instead of waiting for the 20% of the time when it is worth trading, they simply trade 80% to 100% of the time with very little discretion or self-control,
like a drunk guy at a casino.

Don’t let this be you, remember the 80/20 rule ESPECIALLY as it pertains to trading vs. not trading. If you think you are trading about 80% of the time, you need to evaluate your trading habits and
make it more in-line with trading only 20% of the time and 80% of the time should be spent observing and keeping your hands in your pockets (not trading).

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Special offer! Get our most popular subscription for free, saving £199 per month! How can you get this deal?

Simply click here and open an account with our preferred broker. Deposit a minimum of $5000 and you’ll get an email every morning with all our trade ideas, signals & analysis on 20 markets by 4am GMT!!

You will also get private mentor sessions with Jason Sen whenever you need them. At no extra cost!! For all the details on the subscription click here.

As a special bonus, I will give you my Complete technical analysis & day trading course for free when you have been trading with us for 3 months – A saving of £399!!

Huge savings, the best technical analysis & trade ideas and a free course.

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Start trading support & resistance levels – scalping like a pro trader.

Start trading support & resistance levels – scalping like a pro trader.

(See my special offer at the bottom of the page)

Jason Sen has been trading financial markets on his own account since 1987. He started offering his analysis services to professional investment bank traders in 2008. As the retail traders business grew he began offering the reports to the public in 2012.
Our reports are used by the investment bank and professional brokerage companies but we use language that even the novice retail analyst will understand. Even the most experienced operators in the financial markets use our reports to give them more confidence in their own analysis.

We provide a brief summary of the previous day’s action and how the report identified useful support & resistance levels.

In the main part of the report we start with our outlook for the day & our opinion on direction through trend analysis. (Bear in mind markets usually do not move in one direction throughout the day but move up and down in a general direction).

We then identify the most important support & resistance levels where prices may pause or reverse. We notify you of minor resistance & support (which are useful targets).

We will also notify you if we think there is a good chance of a high for the day or a low for the day at a certain level.

Understanding the principles of support & resistance are key to recognising price action in financial markets.

A support level is a price level where the market price tends to stop moving down. This means the price could very well “bounce” off this level rather than break through it and is more likely to do so the first time it it tested. However, once the price has passed below this level, perhaps on the second or third test it is likely to continue dropping until it finds another support level.

Support levels tend to work better in a bull trend.

A resistance level is the opposite of a support level. It is where the price tends to stop moving up.

Minor levels often act as targets. There is still a good chance that the market will pause as these levels are reached (and financial market traders may take some of their profits here).

The rule is that support becomes resistance when it is broken and resistance becomes support. So once a break below support is seen we expect the price to head towards the next target or minor support level.

When a break above resistance is seen we look for a move towards the next target or resistance above.

Prices can remains moving in the direction of the prevailing trend for a lot longer than you may imagine! Traders say ”The trend is your friend”

If the market is in a positive bull trend experienced traders try to buy if there is a small correction down to a support level. They are also ready to buy a break above a resistance level & look for a move towards the next target & resistance level for profit taking.

If the market is in a negative bear trend traders try to sell if there is a small correction higher to a resistance level. Or they are ready to sell a break below a support level & look for a move towards the next target & support level for profit taking.

If traders do not place a stop loss on every trade, they have not predetermined the maximum loss they will take on a trade. This is one of, if not the worst trading habit practiced. Every trader experiences being stopped out on some trades before the market reverses. It is just something that will occasionally happen. However sooner or later, by not using a stop loss on every trade, one trade will run away and traders will be frozen as the losses increase dramatically. In some cases traders will lose the total amount in their account.

This is unfortunately a very common problem for inexperienced traders.

When you are ready to execute a trade you need to ask yourself:

  • How much can I afford to lose? … so that I can continue trading tomorrow? The general rule is only risk 1-2% of your account on each trade.
  • Exit strategy: You must always place a stop on entry. Ask yourself: What is the price at which I will admit that this trade is not working? We give clear stop levels on our reports when we suggest a buying or selling opportunity.
  • Profit taking: How will I close this position? Use a trailing stop if you think you can or are prepared to run your trade a long way. ORSet a realistic target if you are looking for a quick turn.

We have provided our daily technical analysis to many leading investment banks and brokers including Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Bayern Landesbank, Mizuho, Bourse de Montreal Canada, First Continental Trading as well as the leading professional UK proprietary day trading arcades: Marex Spectron, Xconnect Trading and Tower Trading Group.

We also have hundreds of retail trader clients, many who have been with us for several years.

Yes. If you do not have a lot of experience in technical analysis, the report can seem a little overwhelming. It may take a few days for you to become accustomed to some of the market terminology.

NO! If you have little experience you will need to be patient and educate yourself. Why?

Imagine you are learning a completely new skill, such as riding a bicycle. It looks dead simple, because so many people do it every day. However we all know it takes quite a lot of practice just to get going and stay up right. Then we have to master controlling the brakes…not too soft, not too strong. Then we have to get used to building up speed. Eventually we may be ready to cycle on the road but we have to gradually build road awareness. We need to be aware of the dangers of other vehicles and learn the rules of the road.

Even if you are a successful car driver, learning to ride a bike and then use it on the public roads would take a lot of practice.

Risking your own money to trade financial markets is much harder than learning to ride a bike. Markets are far more unpredictable than other vehicles. Cars indicate but markets change direction without any prior signals.

Anyone who thinks you can credit your brokerage account and start trading profitably from day one is a fool. You will get ‘run over’ in the market if you do not practice on a demo account.

Learning any new skill requires study and education. It requires practice and learning from mistakes. Trading is incredibly hard to master become much of it requires you to have total self control.

Just because you are successful in other fields does not mean you will be successful at trading.

Take time, invest in your trading career.

Every one develops a trading style that is unique to them, one that suits their personality. You must give yourself time not only to learn but to develop your trading strategy and style. THIS TAKES A LARGE INVESTMENT IN YOUR TIME.

If you are not prepared to invest time in educating yourself and practising to develop your skills, stop now before you lose all your money.

A trader must study the psychological side of trading, the simple basic rules of discipline, patience, trade management, risk management, account management (especially position sizing) BEFORE risking money.

Understand that I don’t want to take your money on a subscription to then see you fail because you don’t understand basic trading rules. If you are not prepared to educate yourself don’t waste your money on a subscription to our reports.

Practice important trading rules & techniques on a demo account, using our levels & trade ideas for at least couple of months. Any new skill requires a lot of self education. If you fail to control your emotions, plan your trade fully before entry, your trade exit, your discipline etc, you will lose a large sum of money, I guarantee it.

Special offer! Get our most popular subscription for free, saving £199 per month! How can you get this deal?

Simply click here and open an account with our preferred broker. Deposit a minimum of $5000 and you’ll get an email every morning with all our trade ideas, signals & analysis on 20 markets by 4am GMT!!

 You will also get private mentor sessions with Jason Sen whenever you need them. At no extra cost!! For all the details on the subscription click here.

As a special bonus, I will give you my Complete technical analysis & day trading course for free when you have been trading with us for 3 months – A saving of £399!!

Huge savings, the best technical analysis & trade ideas and a free course.

You’ll save £996 in just the first 3 months, as you build your account with a trading veteran with over 34 years experience!!

For more information contact jason@daytradeideas.co.uk

18 reasons why you must use stop-loss orders

What happens when traders do not enter stop orders?

What is a stop loss and where do I place it?

 

A stop loss is an order that will automatically close your open position when a price is traded.

You MUST always enter a stop loss when you execute a trade or when you enter a ‘limit open’ trade.
(This is when you enter a buy order below the current trading price or a sell order above it).

As soon as you start to rely on mental stop loss orders (when you watch the market and decide to exit manually,

when the price hits your mental stop loss price),
you may as well just throw all the money in your account away. You will hesitate and fail to execute the stop,

in the hope of a rebound in price to save you.
Taking losses is incredibly hard for human beings to do without emotion. IT HURTS TO TAKE A LOSS.

You must therefore automate the process and leave a stop loss order in your order book.

 

      1. No trader who spots an opportunity believes the trade will be a loser.
      1. However the experienced trader knows losses are part of the job & must be managed correctly.
      1. Inexperienced traders believe they can trust themselves to activate a manual stop. They think they will be disciplined enough to exit the trade when the price reaches their ‘mental’ stop loss level.
      1. However the experienced trader knows that is highly unlikely to happen because it is at this stage when inexperienced traders fear they are about to exit just before the price reverses. 
      1. The inexperienced traders draw on previous occasions when this has happened & convince themselves that this will happen again. 
      1. The experienced trader knows that he must AUTOMATICALLY exit at the predetermined stop loss level in order to preserve the risk vs reward ratio that made the trade worth taking.
      1. Experienced traders know that automatically exiting the position at the predetermined stop loss level allows them to immediately move forward to the next trading opportunity – which could allow the loss to be made back & even a small profit on top to be achieved.
      1. The inexperienced trader however becomes emotionally entangled in the losing trade which is more likely to move further against the trader & increase the loss. 
      1. Not only does this increase the potential loss on the trade, it also causes the trader to start to panic, try to second guess the market, to hope & pray that the trade works.
      1. In such a poor mental state  inexperienced traders no longer think clearly, because they are driven purely by fear & greed. 
      1. Even if prices start to move in a profitable direction the trader is frozen not knowing whether to run the trade or escape with a small loss.
      1. All the while the inexperienced trader is reinforcing bad habits that can lead to further undisciplined trading.   
      1. The experienced trader has already moved on to the next trading opportunity and may be making back the small loss already. The inexperienced trader has missed out on a potentially profitable trade while nursing the losing trade. 
      1. Some inexperienced traders will then decide to average into the losing trade (by adding to the position in a desperate gamble) rather than exit. When prices continue to move in the wrong direction, the losses are magnified & they risk losing everything. 
      1. In the worst case scenario, the loss mounts & mounts until the inexperienced trader can no longer bear the pain. Panic sets in, forcing the trader out of the position for a huge loss. 

Or the loss is so large that the broker forces the trade to be closed.

      1. The inexperienced trader is now totally lost & has no idea how to recover the loss. That’s if there’s even enough funds left in the account to trade again. Consumed with fear the trader is unable to make rational decisions.
      1. In the next stage the trader may become angry & attempt to make the loss back in one big trade. This is called revenge trading, when the trader blames the market for the loss and not themselves. 
      1. More often than not the revenge trade leads to another big loss, sometimes wiping out the account completely.

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Book a FREE 15 minute mentor session with Jason Sen now. Click here  

 

Special offer! Get our most popular subscription for free, saving £199 per month!
How can you get this deal?

Simply click here and open an account with our preferred broker. Deposit a minimum of $5000 and you’ll get an email every morning with all our trade ideas, signals & analysis on 20 markets by 4am GMT!!

You will also get private mentor sessions with Jason Sen whenever you need them. At no extra cost!! For all the details on the subscription click here.

As a special bonus, I will give you my Complete technical analysis & day trading course for free when you have been trading with us for 3 months – A saving of £399!!

Huge savings, the best technical analysis & trade ideas and a free course.

You’ll save £996 in just the first 3 months, as you build your account with a trading veteran with over 34 years experience!!

For more information contact jason@daytradeideas.co.uk

Introduction to Forex Trading

Introduction to Forex Trading

For traders, especially those with limited funds, day trading or swing trading in small amounts is easier in the forex market than other markets.
For those with longer-term horizons and larger funds, long-term fundamentals-based trading or a carry trade can be profitable.
A focus on understanding the macroeconomic fundamentals driving currency values and experience with technical analysis may help new forex traders to become more profitable.

The foreign exchange (also known as FX or forex) market is a global marketplace for exchanging national currencies against one another.

Because of the worldwide reach of trade, commerce and finance, forex markets tend to be the largest and most liquid asset markets in the world.

Market participants use forex to hedge against international currency and interest rate risk, to speculate on geopolitical events, and to diversify portfolios, among several other reasons.

Forex trades are made over the counter — trader to trader or through forex brokers — rather than through a central exchange.

Because traders work across time zones, the forex market is open 24 hours a day, five days a week.

Currencies are always traded in pairs, and prices are quoted in pairs.

Currency prices fluctuate rapidly but in small increments, which makes it hard for investors to make money on small trades.

That’s why currencies almost always are traded with leverage, or money borrowed from the broker.

Because forex is traded in pairs, you’re always exchanging one currency for another — buying one, selling the other — just like you would at a currency exchange shop.

There are seven currencies known as the “majors,” or the most often traded:
the euro (EUR),
U.S. dollar (USD),
Canadian dollar (CAD),
British pound (GBP),
Australian dollar (AUD),
Japanese yen (JPY)
and Swiss franc (CHF).

The “major pairs” are these currencies paired with the U.S. dollar.

How to read a forex quote


Being able to read and really understand a forex quote is, unsurprisingly, key to trading forex.
Let’s start with an example of an exchange rate: EUR/USD 

The currency on the left (EUR) is the base currency and is always equal to one unit — 1€, in this example.

The currency on the right (USD) is called the counter or quote currency. The number is what the counter currency is worth relative to one unit of the base currency.

When that number goes up, it means the base currency has risen in value, because one unit can buy more of the counter currency.

When that number goes down, the base currency has fallen. In this example quote, 1€ is equal to $1.1011

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The ask price ($1.1011) tells you how much of the counter currency (USD, in our example) it will take to buy one unit of the base currency (EUR).

The bid price ($1.10109) tells you how much of the counter currency you can buy when you sell one unit of the base currency. 

The difference between these two prices — the ask price minus the bid price — is called the spread.

The size of the spread is also displayed under the product name (written in grey) – so for example the EURUSD has a spread of 1 pip.

XAUSD (the code for Gold spot) has a spread of 9 points. (the difference between 1458.35 and 1458.44).

 

In stock trading, you might hear or read that a stock’s share price went up a point, or $1. A pip is the forex version of a point: the smallest price movement within a currency pair.

A pip’s value depends on the trade lot and the currency pair. If you’re trading a pair that has the USD as the counter currency and you’re using a dollar-based account to buy and sell, the pip values are:

Micro lot (1,000 units): pip = 10 cents.

Mini lot (10,000 units): pip = $1.

Standard lot (100,000 units): pip = $10.

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If the USD is the base currency, the pip value will be based on the counter currency, and you’ll need to divide these values for micro, mini and standard lots by the pair’s exchange rate.
To figure out how many pips are in the spread, subtract the bid price from the ask price:

In this example we have a 2 pip spread for EURUSD.|

Trading terminology

Ask (Asked or Offered Price) – The lowest price at which an FX pair (or financial product) can be purchased in the market or on an exchange. 

Bear Market – A market in which prices are generally declining (trending lower) over a period of time. 

Bid – The highest price at which an FX pair can be sold. (The highest price at which other market participants will buy).

Bull Market – A market in which prices are generally rising or expected to rise in the future. 

Bullish – Term used to describe rising prices or expectation of rising prices. 

Day Order – An order that, if not executed on the day it is entered, expires (& is automatically cancelled) at the close of that day’s trading. 

Day Trade – The buying and selling of the same security on the same day. This means the trader had no position at the end of the day. 

Good-Til-Cancelled (open) Order (GTC) – An order that does not expire at the end of the day it is entered. Instead, it remains in force until it is either executed or cancelled.

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Limit Order – Sets the highest price the trader is willing to pay for a buy order, or the lowest price the trader is willing to accept for a sell order.
Buy orders may be executed at or below the limit price, but never higher. Sell orders may be executed at or above the limit price, but never lower.

Long Position – A position in which a trader has made a purchase to hold the FX pair, intending to sell at a higher price.

Market Order – An order that is executed as quickly as possible at the best price available. Buy orders will execute at the “ask” price and Sell orders will execute at the “bid” price.

Range – The high and low prices for the day for a security.

 

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Short Position – A position in which a trader has sold when not already long, with the intention to buy back to close the position at a lower price. 

Short Sale – The sale of an FX pair that has not already been bought. The short seller must buy it back at a later date, preferably at a lower price to secure a profit.

 

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Spread – The difference between the bid and offer sides of a quote. 

Stop loss Order – An order that executes immediately & automatically when the price is reached or passed. Buy stops are entered above the current market price; sell stops are entered below it.
Stop loss orders are generally used to automatically limit losses or protect profits.

Support Level – A price at which a particular stock may tend to stop its momentum when moving downward. 

Volatility – The degree of price fluctuation for a given asset, rate, or index; usually expressed as a variance or standard deviation.

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Book a FREE 15 minute mentor session with Jason Sen now. Click here  

 

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Learn the best technical analysis techniques

& my simple trading strategies!

Learn my rules of survival & methods to maximise profits!

Learn how to find low risk trading opportunities to help traders maximise profits.

Many of our students have gone on to be professional traders. 

Look at what is included!!

This special offer includes NINE free PRIVATE weekly 15 minute strategy call meetings with Jason Sen, throughout the course .
We email the link to one module, every week for 9 weeks.

Unlimited strategy call meetings when the you have completed the course, with Jason Sen whenever you need them in the future.
You will get Jason Sen’s personal Whatspp number so you can contact him directly when you need him urgently.

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