U.S. economic data releases on Thursday, June 27 include:
The GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q1, Core PCE Prices QoQ Final Q1, Initial Jobless Claims, Core PCE Prices, and Real Consumer Spending QoQ Final Q1.
1. GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q1
Explanation
The GDP Growth Rate measures the annualized change in the value of all goods and services produced by the economy.
The final Q1 reading reflects the comprehensive revision of GDP data, incorporating more complete and accurate information.
Market Impact
US Dollar: Strong GDP growth can boost the dollar as it signals a healthy economy.
Gold: A strong GDP may pressure gold prices downward as investors seek higher-yielding assets.
US Stock Markets: Positive GDP data typically supports stock markets due to expectations of continued corporate profitability.
2. Core PCE Prices QoQ Final Q1
Explanation
Core PCE Prices exclude food and energy prices and are the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.
This data shows how much prices increased during the first quarter.
Market Impact
US Dollar: Rising Core PCE Prices can strengthen the dollar as they may prompt the Fed to hold interest rates.
Gold: A higher than expected number may pressure gold prices downward as investors seek higher-yielding assets.
US Stock Markets: Moderate inflation is generally favorable for stocks, but excessive inflation may cause concern about potential rate hikes.
3. Initial Jobless Claims
Explanation
This weekly report measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time.
It is a timely indicator of labor market health.
Market Impact
US Dollar: Lower than expected jobless claims can support the dollar, reflecting a strong economy.
Gold: Positive labor data can depress gold prices as investors shift to riskier assets.
US Stock Markets: Low jobless claims are generally positive for stocks, suggesting continued economic strength.
4. Core PCE Prices (Monthly)
Explanation
This monthly indicator measures the inflation rate excluding food and energy. It’s closely watched for any signs of accelerating inflation.
Market Impact
US Dollar: An uptick in Core PCE Prices can lead to a stronger dollar on expectations of future rate hikes.
Gold: Higher than expected Core PCE Prices may drive gold lower with fear of rates remaining higher for longer
US Stock Markets: Moderate inflation supports stock prices, but too high a rate can lead to fears of tighter monetary policy.
5. Real Consumer Spending QoQ Final Q1
Explanation
This measures the inflation-adjusted value of all expenditures by consumers.
It’s a crucial indicator of consumer demand and overall economic health.
Market Impact
US Dollar: Strong consumer spending supports the dollar as it signals economic strength.
Gold: High consumer spending may lower gold prices as investors favor growth assets.
US Stock Markets: Robust consumer spending is typically positive for stocks, indicating strong corporate revenue prospects.
