Natural Gas did bottom out & push higher as predicted, to reach our upper target of 4.092. We start this week looking positive so watch for a break above 4.097 to take us up towards 4.130/33 & possibly as far as 4.163. We should struggle in this area today so watch for a high for the day but if we push on we could reach 4.230/250 perhaps later in the week. Failure to beat resistance at 4.093/97 today however could see us drift back to 4.015. We should meet buyers here so watch for a low for the day but if we continue lower we could retest 3.940/930 support. 

Gasoil unexpectedly broke above 875 to fill the gap at 883.75 but held just below at 882.75. We are now very overbought so we could see profit taking at the start of this week. Look for a dip back to support at 873.55 with a bounce possible. However if we continue lower we meet good support at 868/867 & a good chance of a low for the day to exit any remaining shorts. Next support at 863.25 & then 859/858 could be a buying opportunity later in the week. 882.75/883.75 is our first challenge this week on the topside, with further resistance at 889.35. We should struggle here so watch for a high for the day but shorts need stops above 893 for a test of resistance at 898.

Brent Crude did break above our stop of 104.80 but only made it to 104.87. This did not fit in with our expectation. We are overbought but could push on for 105.31. We should struggle here so watch for a high for the day but if we continue higher look for a retest of 105.95/106.05 May highs. This should hold again this week so we could exit longs & try shorts with stops above 106.50 for a test of March lows at 106.80. Immediate support is at 104.40/20 so a break below here should trigger sell orders & keep the market under pressure for 103.55/35. This may hold the downside but a break lower should see 102.95 & possibly 102.70/50. Good support below then at 102.05/101.90.

WTI Crude broke above 96.00 which was a little unexpected & we reached 96.45. We could keep up last week’s momentum for a test of May highs at 97.17 but we are overbought and may not even make it this far so watch 96.45/65 along the way. Above 97.17 we hit 3 month trend line resistance at 97.53 & April highs at 97.80. We should fail with in this 97.17/80 band. Being overbought, if we cannot beat 96.45/65 look for a drift back to 95.50. Below here we should see 95.01 & possibly good support at 94.47/44 which should hold the downside. However a break lower again today then targets further good support at 93.67/64. 

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EURUSD failed just below strong resistance of 1.3053 at 1.3029 & broke 1.2950/35 as expected. We could now target good support at 1.2890/80 today. There is a good chance of a short term bounce from here so worth trying longs with stops below 1.2840. On a break lower we then look for the next support at this year’s low of 1.2750/45. 1.2936 is immediate resistance but above here we could stretch to 1.2990/00. Exit longs & try shorts with stops above 1.3045.

Spot Gold outlook remains negative so any bounce today may be a selling opportunity. There is resistance at 1436 could pose a problem but above here at 1446/49 we could exit any longs, perhaps try shorts with stops above 1451. A break higher could then offer another selling opportunity at 1463/69. Stops on shorts here are needed above 1475. 

Failure to get back above 1434/36 leaves us vulnerable to a retest of last week’s low at 1420/19. We just held this level yesterday in fact but a break lower is more likely today & should target 1405. This is quite good support & we should start to look oversold in the short term at this stage so watch for a bounce. However a break lower could test strong support at 1391/86 for a buying opportunity.

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Dax took a tumble to 8218. Support at 8239 then 8222/18 again today but below here could test 8171/66 then much better support at 8138. 
We should struggle at 8303 but above here the major 13 year trend line resistance at 8335/60 is the important level to watch this week. We need stops above 8387 as a break higher then targets 8442.

FTSE hit the next target of 6615/20. We are ridiculously overbought & approaching 13 year trend line resistance at 6664. This should be an enormous challenge with a strong chance we can go no higher even in this 4 year bull market. 
Support at 6612/07 then 6575/65 which should hold the downside. If however we break lower look for good support at 6526/19. Exit shorts & try longs with stops below 6495.

S&P is back up testing the 1633 target. We are severely overbought & a dip to support at 1619 is possible today. We held just above here yesterday but below here this week look for 1611/08 to exit shorts & try longs with stops below 1604.  
A break higher in this unstoppable bull run can never be ruled out. All overbought indicators are being ignored at this stage so above 1633 look for 1638, possibly 1644 & 1647/48 this week.

Mini Dow holding above support at 14992 but a move below here is possible today with the market so overbought & should find 14942/926. We would expect a low for the day here so exit shorts & try longs with stops below 14870. 

Resistance at all time highs of 15112 should see us struggle. A break above 15120 however keeps the upward momentum going for a target of 15170/75 & possibly 15244.

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FTSE China failed again at resistance of 8245 last week & being overbought in the short term drifted lower to 8062/55 support. Any longs need a stop below 8030 this week as a break then targets 8007 before better support at 7950/40. 8130/50 is resistance today but above here we can retest last week’s high at 8240/45. A break higher looks unlikely at this stage, but if seen could target the 100 day moving average at 8265. Above here the next resistance at 8366/78 should meet with profit taking. 

Hang Seng reached our target of 23218/241 as expected & topped out here last week. We are overbought in the short term & also on daily charts now so we could see profit taking at the start of this week. Look for another test of support at 23030 then 22913 below. Failure here then leads to a test of stronger support at 22818/768 to exit shorts & try longs with stops below 22700. 23218/241 remains a tough challenge but if we manage a break higher today look for a test of the next resistance at 23410. Any shorts here need stops above 23480. 

HSCEI held below Thursday’s high of 11374. We look overbought on the daily & short term charts so we could see some profit taking at the start of this week. Look for a test of support at 11083, possibly 10996 which may hold at this stage but any longs need stops below 10900. However if we push higher again look for a test of resistance at 11524. Exit longs & try shorts with stops above the March high of 11584. 

Kospi failed just below 259.80/260.40& our selling opportunity & then surprised with a very sharp drop as we close in on 251.80/65 support. The outlook remains negative so below here risks a slide to 249.66/248.80 where we meet the 18 month trend line. Any further losses could target April lows at 246.90 Resistance at 254.56/87 today then 256.80/257.20 which should hold the topside.

Nikkei continued higher to hit the target of 14610 & reached further to 14800. No point in fighting the steep uptrend at this stage so we look for 14900/15000 then a gap to fill at 15240. Support today at 14526 then 14358 should hold any profit taking but longs need stops below 14220. 

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Lead held resistance at 2066 & broke support at 2046 but held good support at 2014/09 as expected but longs need stops below 1990 today. A break lower risks a test of 1968 then last week’s low at 1938. Resistance at 2046 then 2063/66 could hold the topside but above here look for late April highs at 2082. A break higher targets the April high at 2112/15 & above here strong resistance at 2136/46 should hold the topside at this stage. 

Nickel held Wednesday’s range unable to beat strong resistance at 15590/602. We can exit longs & try shorts here with stops above 15680 today with the market now very overbought in the short term. A break higher however targets 15910 as the next resistance. Failure to break 15590/602 should see us drift lower to support at 15335 then 15222/196 below. This could hold the downside but any longs need stops below 15080 for 14972 where we can look for a low for the day. Stops on longs here below 14930 as a break risks a test of last week’s low of 14609.

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Natural Gas broke 3.940/935 but bounced above excellent support at 3.844 & 200 week moving average just below at 3.805, where we expected a low for the correction. Yesterday’s reversal does indicate the end of the correction now so we may not see prices test the 3.844/805 support but if we do get a chance today we could exit shorts & try longs with stops below 3.780. 

3.940 is now support & if we can hold above here look for a test of 4.025/034. This may be as far as we go so watch for a high for the day here but if we continue higher look for strong resistance at 4.110/130. Try shorts here but we need stops above 4.170 for continued strength up to resistance at 4.234/250.

RBOB Gasoline is edging higher & may test the 200 day moving average at 288.85 today. Just above here we meet strong Fibonacci resistance at 289.50/291 so this area could hold a move higher. It may therefore be a good idea to exit longs & try shorts with stops above the 100 day moving average at 292. 

Support at 283.22 today then 280.46 but below here look for 278.77/23 which should hold the downside.

WTI Crude is above resistance at 96.10/25 & looking to test this week’s high of 97.17 but above here we run in to 3 month trend line resistance at 97.53 then April highs at 97.80. We should fail with in this band & hit profit taking being overbought on the daily chart. Exit longs & try shorts with stops above Feb highs at 98.11. If we can then beat January highs at 98.24 look for 99.52. 

Good support at 95.50 today then this week’s low at 94.90/85. Below here 94.47/44 is strong support for trying longs but below 94.20 risks further losses to 93.64 & possibly further good support at 92.80/75. Longs here need a stop below 92.30 for 91.60/40 as the next target.

Brent Crude made it to the target of 105.95/106.05 & topped out here this week to test support at 103.80. We just managed to hold on here & being oversold in the short term now we could go for a retest of 105.95/106.05. This could hold again today but be ready to go with a break higher looking for a test of March lows at 106.80. A break higher from here could then takes us towards 107.96 which is likely to cap at this stage. 

103.80/55 is support again today but below here we could test strong support at 102.50. Look for a low for the day here so we could exit shorts & try longs with stops below 102.00.

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Spot Gold did head lower as expected to reach 1440 support. Below here today we meet 1436/34 with a low for the day likely here. We could exit shorts & try longs with stops below 1427. Be ready to go with a break below 1424 then in expectation of continued losses towards 1405 support. 

Resistance at 1468/69 could hold a move higher today but above here we could reach 1479/80. Exit longs & try shorts here with stops above 1488 as we could then target 1495 & possibly 1503/04. This is a very strong resistance level & could be a good selling opportunity this week with stops needed above 1515. A break higher then targets 18 month trend line resistance at 1538 for another selling opportunity.

USDJPY may have enough momentum to test the 99.70/90 April highs & double top soon. We do look overbought in the short term so watch for selling pressure here but if attempting shorts we need a tight stop above 100.10. A break higher keeps the 6 month bull market intact & targets 100.38 then 100.73 & possibly 101.45 before the end of the week. 

Failure to break higher should see a return to our first support at 98.30/20 but below 97.90 risks a slide back to last week’s low at 97.11/01.

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2731/35 is tough resistance again today but a break higher targets Feb & March highs at 2751/55.  We should struggle here but be ready to go with a break above 2767 for 2799.

Dax beat 8131/35 resistance but only made it to 8153. We are overbought in the short term which is unsurprising after gains of almost 10% in just 9 days. Failure to break 8153 could lead to a test of support at 8077/63 then 8008. Below here this week we have strong support at 7980 for a buying opportunity.

A break of yesterday's high at 8153 could take us up to 8180/90 today with further resistance at 8215/17. However a break above here this week targets all time highs at 8253.

FTSE beat 6443/47 resistance to reach the 6502 target, which closed the roll over gap & we topped out here as expected. However a push through here today should see 6525 with the highs for the year so far at 6552. 
We are overbought in the short term now so 6502 may be as far as we go at this stage. Support at 6469 today then 6449 but below here we could bottom out at 6224/17. Exit shorts & try longs here with stops below 6408.

S&P reached our upside target of 1615/16 & topped out here as we look overbought in the short term now & could test support at 1606 today. Below here look for 1600 & if this does not hold we should be offered a great buying opportunity at 1596/95. Use stops be 1590.  

1615/16 should be tough resistance again in an overbought market, but a break higher cannot be ruled out in this bull run in to new territory. Look for 1622 then 1628/29. We should struggle here this week but a break higher then targets 1633 & 1638.

Mini Dow held our 14932/956 target exactly & being overbought in the short term we did see a drift lower to support at 14875 which also marked the exact low. However we could continue to drift lower again today for 14828/821 which should be a good buying opportunity but we need stops below 14780 for 14750/740 support next. 

A break above 14932/956 resistance looks unlikely at this stage but would target 14999 then 15050/55 resistance.

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FTSE China A50 held the 7750 April lows & bounced in to the end of the week as hoped. We made it further than expected however breaking 8040/50 to reach 8105. 8105/30 is strong resistance & could hold the top side today. If however we push higher look for a test of April highs at 8200. Look for support at 8027 then 7978 but below 7940 risks a test of 7900/80 which should offer a good buying opportunity.

HSCEI held on to 10767/30 support as hoped & made it to resistance at 10930/11033 where we expected selling pressure. This did indeed hold the move but a break higher looks likely today with the outlook more positive for this week so we need stops on shorts above 11100. We could then push on towards 112019 & possibly Fibonacci & 100 day moving average resistance at 11260/285. We should come to a halt here so maybe worth taking profit on longs. Failure to break 11033 resistance however could see us drift back to 10893/863 for a buying opportunity with stops below 10790. Next support is then 10692/10669 for another buying opportunity.

Hang Seng beat 22645/675 as we close in on our next target of 22961. We should see this level today but watch for profit taking here. A top is possible but any shorts need a stop above 23020. We then look for continued strength towards 23116/134 then 23218/241, perhaps later in the week. 100 day moving average support at 22716 with Fibonacci support at 22645 should be a good buying opportunity in this band, with stops below 22590. 

USDJPY held on to the 97.00 level & shot higher breaking 98.90 to test resistance at 99.30 & top out here. The momentum could keep us pushing higher again today for a test of the 99.70/90 April highs & double top. We should look overbought in the short term at this stage so watch for selling pressure but shorts need a tight stop above 100.10. A break higher keeps the 6 month bull market intact & targets 100.38 then 100.73 & possibly 101.45 before the end of the week. Our first support is 98.30/20 but below 97.90 risks a slide back to last week’s low at 97.11/01.

Kospi tested trend line & Fibonacci resistance at 258.10/60 & stretched to 258.95 but could not hold it as feared. It looks more likely we can beat this level today so any shorts here need a stop above 259.10 for a test of the next Fibonacci resistance & 100 day moving average at 261.00/39. This should offer a good selling opportunity as we should look overbought in the short term at this stage but shorts need a stop above 262.00. Failure to break resistance at 258.10/60 should see us test support at 257.37 but below here 256.39/14 could be a good buying opportunity. 

Nikkei bounced from support at 13616 where we expected a low for the day & made it to our 13890 target before topping out right here. A push above last week’s high at 13940 today then sees a test of April highs at 14040. We should struggle here being overbought on the daily chart but it is not worth trying to fight the uptrend so be ready to go with a break higher looking for 14100/120 then 14210 & possibly as far as 14360 then 14420 this week. Support today at 13778 could hold any weakness but below here look for a buying opportunity at 13640/615.

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Spot Gold is just hovering below trend line resistance which is at 1481 today. Go with a break above 1485 looking for 1503/04 & a possible high for this week. Exit longs here & try shorts with the market looking over bought in the short term now but we need a stop above 1515 for a move towards 1540/50 & a selling opportunity here. Support at 1463/61 which held nicely yesterday but a move below 1458 could signal a test of the next support at 1448/46. We look for a bounce from here today but a break below 1441 could then target 1436/34. We could expect a floor here at this stage but could use stops below 1432 as this risks a test of 1424/23 support. 

EURUSD broke resistance at 1.3120/40 to test 1.3190/00 April highs as hoped. We suggested trying shorts here, adding up to 1.3230 using stops above 1.3255 with the pair overbought in the short term now. However a break above 1.3255 could then target 1.3305/20, possibly a move as far as strong resistance at 1.3342. Failure to break 1.3190/00 April highs could see us sink back to good support at 1.3120/00. Longs here need a stop below 1.3080 however as this risks a return to 1.3030/25 support & the chance of a low for the week, but a break lower could target last week’s low at 1.2975/55.

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Kospi beat 253.90/254.00 for our next target of 255.76/86. This was predicted to mark the high for the week & we topped just below here at 255.50.We look for a drift lower now to 253.47 then 252.43/21. We could see a bounce from here so exit shorts as we watch for a low for the day. However further losses should find support at 250.19 to try longs with a stop below 248. Resistance remains at 255.50/86 to exit any longs & sell in to shorts with stops above the 200 day moving average at 256.60 for trend line resistance at 257.90. 

USDJPY took a big tumble as predicted after forming the bearish double. As expected we broke 99.06/00 support to reach strong support at 97.85/80. We expected this to mark the low for the week & we bottomed just below at 97.56. The longer term picture is still negative and as stated last week a break of a break of 97.40/20 could target 96.50/25 support. We should see the market bounce at this stage but longs here need a stop below 96.00 for 95.41 as the next support. However we are getting over sold in the short term and we know there is strong support at 97.85/80. If we see the pair back above 98.20/30 we could reach for 98.90/99.00. Selling in to strength is now the preferred strategy & it looks unlikely we can push any higher but above here we should find resistance at 99.30 then 99.70/80. 

Hang Seng pushed higher to test very strong resistance at 22645/675. Here we expected to hit selling pressure & advised exiting longs & selling in to shorts with a stop above 22750. This has worked well with a high of 22713 and we look for a test of support at 22380/330. We can cover at least some shorts here as this could mark the low for the day. Exit any remaining shorts if we break lower to the next support at 22175. Strong resistance remains at 22645/675 today & we can try the same strategy of exiting longs & selling in to shorts with a stop above 22750 for 22879 then 22961. 

HSCEI stretched towards 10996/11033 which is strong resistance & we expected to top out here. We topped just slightly below in fact at 10961 & should test support at 10767 then possibly 10690/650. We could expect a bounce from here so watch for a low for the day. However longs need a stop below 10550 for good support at 10480/460 to try longs. If we hold on to 17067 support we could try for a retest of resistance at 10930/11033 & look for selling pressure. We can try shorts here with a stop above 11100.

FTSE China A50 has drifted lower to test support at 7850/40 & below here today we need to watch the 7750 lows closely as this remains strong support. However a break below 7720 certainly cannot be ruled out & keeps the market under pressure for 7655 then 7550. Resistance at 7940/50 then the next target of 8055 above which should be tough to beat & we could top out here. However if we push higher today look for 8130/50 resistance & the 100 day moving average just above at 8190.

Topix failed to reach the next target of 1181 & has topped so far at 1177. We are testing the first support at 1160 and below here look for 1149 then 1141/40. If we continue lower this week look for 1132/29 & a buying opportunity here. Resistance at 1177/78 but above 1181 we could reach as far as 1187/88. 

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Copper broke 7045 as hoped to reach the next target at 7099/7111. We continued higher as we build momentum to reach resistance at 7203/06. If we can hold above 7136 & beat 7203/06 today look for a test of strong resistance at 7253. We could see prices top out here today but any shorts could use stops above 7280 for a move to 7307. A push through 7330 then signals a test of very strong resistance at 7367/69 for a selling opportunity at this stage. Failure to hold above 7137/36 however could see a drift back to 7111/09. The daily outlook is improving so this could be as far as we fall but on a break lower look for support at 7045.

Lead broke 2046/47 as hoped to reach the 2062 target & kept going as we head towards 2088/98 resistance. This area could mark the high for the week if tested. Exit longs, sell in to shorts with a stop above 2113 for 2121/22. Support today at 2046 should hold any profit taking today. We would expect a bounce from here but need stops on longs below 2039.

Nickel can start to build a recovery after 2 month of losses as we beat 15374 today to hit our target of 15560/600. We expected a high for the day here & possibly the week so exited longs to try shorts with a stop above 15710. This worked perfectly with a top at 15568. Support at 15374 for taking profit on our shorts. We are looking for a bounce from here & could also try longs with stops below 15312 for 15180. Again look for a bounce but if we continue lower this risks a test of 15100/075 lows. 15560/600 is tough resistance again today but a break above 15615 cannot be ruled out. Go with the move for 15710 & possibly as far as a test of 15860/940 resistance to try shorts.

Zinc continued higher as hoped to reach our 1933/37 target & carried on but could not reach 1961. We have closed below 1933/37 as we look very over bought in the short term so there is a risk of a drift back to good support at 1914/08 today. We expect a bounce from here but need stops below 1900 for 1891. Above 1933/37 resistance we then need to beat yesterday’s high of 1948 for 1961 possibly even 1970/74. This should mark the high for this week if we stretch this far. Exit all longs & try shorts with stops above 1990. 

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Bobl has gone side ways in a range from 126.31 up to 127.01 this month. Resistance at 126.80/81 then 126.89/91 before the highs at 127.96/01. A break higher should trigger stops above 127.09 to target 127.13/14 then 127.28/29. Above here look for 127.40/44 then a roll over gap to fill up to 127.53. Below 126.80 we could see 126.77 & any further weakness finds good support at 126.58/56. Last week’s low at 126.45 should attract buying interest but below here targets 126.31/26.


UK 10 year Gilts now testing April highs & 200 week MA at 120.12/20. We are over bought so we are watching for a double top here but on a break higher look for Dec highs at 120.50/53 this week. Any further gains should meet Fibonacci resistance at 120.76. Support levels if we fail to break 120.12/20 highs are 119.78 then 119.53 but below here 119.33 could mark the low for the week. Watch for a bounce with in this band but use stops below the 200 day MA at 119.19. 

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RBOB Gasoline held support at 270.54 which was predicted to attract buying interest & we bottomed at 270.36. We moved higher to reach our target of 279.74/280.47 & take profit on longs as we expected a high for the day here. Yesterday’s reversal indicates an end to the 5 week sell off & today there is scope to break higher to test strong resistance at 282.65/283.65. Exit all longs here & perhaps try shorts with a stop above 285.65. If we fail to break 279.74/280.47 resistance we should drift back to support at 276.50/10. Look for a bounce from here but a break below 273 risks a retest of 270.50/00 to try longs with a stop below 269.15. Failure here could keep the pressure on for 268.32/08.

WTI Crude collapsed all the way to 86.12 where we predicted a low for the heavy losses experienced in April. We made it to our 88.83 target & as expected we could not improve on this level. However further gains are possible today to target 89.41 & above here should clear the path towards 90.44/54. This area looks like an excellent selling opportunity with stops above 91.00. Failure to break 89.00 could see prices drift back to 87.60/20. Below here then risks another test of 86.12/06 but this is still excellent support to try longs with a stop below 85.60. A break lower sends us in to another spin for 85.20 then 84.57 & possibly 84.05.

Brent Crude held the 200 week MA support & we are struggling at 100.25 resistance as expected. However a push higher looks possible today to target 101.24 & a high for the day likely but above here look for 102.24 then 103.00/25 is achievable. If we reach this far it should mark the end of the bounce so we should exit all longs & try shorts with stops above 103.90. Back below 100 however risks a move to 98.90/80. failure here could lead to a retest of 98.00/70 for a bounce but longs need stops below 97.50 for 97.10. A move below 97.10 then signals a test of support at 95.30/00. If we cannot bounce from here look for 94.00/90 then excellent long term support at 93.40/20. Exit all shorts & buy in to longs with a wide stop below 92.50.

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FTSE Support today is at 6320 but failure here sees 6303 with a bounce possible but we need stop below 6288 for 6265. If we continue lower look for 6248/40 & a good bounce likely from here. It does look like we could be forming a longer term bearish head & shoulders pattern on the daily chart so we have to watch this.    
Resistance at 6347 & a push through 6370/74 looks unlikely now but if seen could lead us higher towards 6392/93. This should be as far as we go on the top side so we could try shorts here with a stop above 6412.

EuroStoxx failed at 2603/07 & if we continue to hold below 2593 we could test support at 2561/58. Failure here however could see us down at 2549/47 but if we cannot bounce from here look for 2527/24 as the next potential target. A break of 2519 could then signal a retest of 2501/2495.  
Shorts on a revisit to 2617/22 need a stop above 2630 for 2651. This is strong resistance & we should fail here but we need stops above 2666.

S&P beat 1586/87 all time highs to reach 1593 last week but closed on Friday below 1586. It has been a long time coming but in theory we now have the biggest bearish double top pattern in history. Only a close above 1593 will now negate this pattern. Until then the outlook is bearish. 
As stated on Friday I am wary of a sharp sell off & below 1570/68 support look for 1563 with 1556 the next target. Below 1550 sees 1544 & then there is a chance we fall as far as 1537/33.
Resistance is 1578/79 then 1586/87 before 1593 all time highs. Above here we look for 1598/99 but bulls ideally need a weekly close above 1587 at least.

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Any move higher today will need to beat 251.25/50 to offer the chance to test resistance at252.75/85. Watch for sellers here so it should be worth trying shorts with a stop above 254.



Hang Seng hit 22152/210 & we entered shorts with a stop above 22290. The high was 22250 &we tested support at 22000/21900 as predicted on Friday. This did in fact mark the low but theshort term outlook is still weak so on a break lower today look for 21770. Below here21643/21587 is our support for re-entering longs with a stop below 21550. A break lower shouldtarget 21490/443 but there is scope to test the 200 day moving average at 21304 & a chance ofa bounce here but if we continue lower look for 21210 as the next target & support.

22152/210 is upside resistance again today where we should run in to sellers. Go with a breakabove 22290 however, looking for 22402. If this does not hold us back we could test 22594 resistancebut unlikely we can make it any further.


USDJPY last week reached our longer term target of 99.74, the 50% recovery of the whole movelower from 124.14 in 2007 to 75.35 in 2011. We predicted the pair to top out here & hold belowthe psychological 100 level & the high on Friday was 99.95. We then plunged down to 98.30/20support as expected, where we predicted a floor for the day & the low was seen at 98.09.

If we hold above 98.20/10 today, a return toward 99.10/20 & even the 99.70/95 area is certainlypossible. Markets do like to retest big levels but we would see this as another selling opportunitywith stops needed above 100.25 to then target 2009 highs of 101.45.

Below 98.00 however keeps the pressure on for 97.19 & below here we look for 97.19 then 96.34



HSCEI held resistance at 10852/867 where we entered shorts & broke support at 10700 to reach10560 but could well retest 10400/10370 this week to take profit on any remaining shorts. Theoutlook remains weak so any longs may need stops below 10336 in this down trend to targetgood support at 10284. We have further support from November lows at 10201 so with in thisband we can look for a bounce & possibly an end to the 2/3 month sell off. However any longshere should need a tight stop as a break lower could then target 10088/032.

10705 & then 10852/867 above are resistance for shorts again with a stop above 10900 for11059/084 & possibly 11155.



Topix hit the next target of 1151!!1151/52 is resistance of course again today & with the market over bought now in the shortterm we could see some selling pressure at the start of this week. Support is seen at 1131 butbelow here risks a test of 1118. We should see a bounce from here but a break lower could allowfurther losses towards good support at 1109/07. Exit any shorts here & try longs with a stop below1097.

A break above 1153 can never be ruled out in this incredible 22 week bull run for the next targetof 1162/65.


FTSE China A50 headed lower towards support at 7813/00 but below here risks another test of 7750. We could try longs here again looking for a double bottom but need to stop out of longsbelow 7720.

7990/800 and then 8090/8130 are resistance levels for today where should meet sellers butshorts need a stop above 8175 for continued strength towards 8240 & possibly as far as 8366.



Nikkei reached 13540 last week & has hovered below here in the past 2 sessions. The market does look overbought in the short term so a drift lower in the early part of the week at least is possible. We tested support at13370/360 on Friday & managed to hold but below here today we should see 13249 with good support at13160/130 to offer a potential a buying opportunity with stops needed below 13070. Next target would thenbe 12942 on the downside.

Resistance at last week’s high of 12540 but a push through here could take us up to our target of 13660. Abovehere look for 13820 & then the next big target & resistance is at 13930. Here we could try shorts looking for apotential top to the 22 week rally.


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Nickel tried to break resistance at 16277 but only made it to 16345 & we are now heading back towards the 15980/950 lows. A bounce from here again is possible but a break would then risk a retest of November lows at 15800/760. Resistance remains at 16277/280 which could hold again but a break of yesterday’s high at 16345 should trigger fresh buying for a move towards 16410/430 & possibly as far as 16480. We should run out of steam here so may be wise to exit remaining longs & try shorts with stops above 16530.

Lead bottomed out last week just above major long term support of 2031 & we have managed to hold above 2088 support. If we hold on again today look for 2108 then yesterday’s high of 2113 & possibly as far as 2121/22. We look quite over bought in the short term so we could struggle here & can try shorts with a stop above 2130 for 2140/42. Here we should run in to sellers & top out at this stage so may be wise to exit any longs & sell in to shorts with stops above 2149. Below 2088/86 we could reach 2072/70. We may see a bounce from here but failure could take us back to 2063, possibly as far as 2052/51.

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Support today at 336 could hold any pull back but a break lower could trigger a move towards 334 & possibly as far as a retest of good support at 330.60/30. Here we should look for a bounce so can exit shorts & try longs in expectation of a bullish double bottom. Stops needed below 328 as this breaks the trend line to target 326.50/35 then 323.80.

A drift back below 336 could scupper hopes of any further upside for today at least. Watch for a move then towards 334 & possibly as far as a retest of good support at 330.60/30. Here we should look for a bounce so can exit shorts & try longs in the hope of a bullish double bottom. Stops needed below 328 as this breaks the trend line to target 326.50/35 then 323.80.  

282.55/00 is support but longs need a stop below here as this risks a test of 282.70/50. Here we could expect a bottoming out for the one month sell off. We could therefore attempt longs with a stop below 280. 

Natural Gas broke above 3.966 & shot through 4.044 to reach 4.180 as the bull market charges on. Today if we push through 4.180 look for 4.230 then 4.520 later in the week. 

Support at 4.105 could hold any weakness today but if we push below here look for 4.068/058 as a buying opportunity with stops on longs needed below 4.020. Next support is then seen at 3.983.

Brent Crude broke November lows at 104.76 to hit ‘solid support at 103.84/74’ & try longs with stops below 103.30. This trade worked as we held 103.62 & there is a good chance that we have bottomed out now after heavy losses last week. 104.67 should determine direction this morning & above here look for 105.32/55. Watch for a high for the day here but any shorts need a stop above 105.90 for 106.36 to exit longs & possibly a move as far as 106.74/80. This should be enough of a recovery at this stage so we could expect selling pressure to resume here. 

Failure to break 104.67 could see us drift back to solid support at 103.84/74. We could try longs here again in the hope of a double bottom and a buy signal. Stops needed below 103.30. 

WTI Crude was predicted to top out at the start of last week & we saw a collapse. On Friday we failed at resistance of 93.46/68 for another test of 92.12/07 where we also met the 100 day moving average. In the short term we are over sold so a test of resistance at 93.30 should determine today’s direction. Above here we can continue higher towards 94.00/20. Watch for sellers here but shorts need stops above 94.40 for 94.85. We could try shorts here with a stop above 95.15. 

Failure to break 93.30 keeps the pressure on for a possible retest of 92.12/07. We could try longs here with a good chance of another bottom today, but we need a stop below 91.84 for 91.32/14 support where we do expect a bottom & a good bounce. Try longs here with a stop below 90.80.

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A push back above 1604 however could allow gains as far as 1609 where we could attempt shorts with a stop above 1612.

Kospi was predicted to bottom out on Friday after 3 weeks of losses and this proved to be correct as we broke above 258.20/75 to reach our upper target of 260.96/261.44 & topped out just a fraction above.

Hang Seng made another challenge of 22400/425 resistance and this held the move higher. 

Topix was unable to make it much above 1043/44 & Friday’s reversal may indicate we have topped out for the time being.

FTSE China A50 hit the target of 8536 & over ran just a little to 8550. This resistance should hold again today if tested but shorts need a stop above 8580 as we could then target 8670/8695.

USDJPY one year trend line support comes in today at 94.10/93.95 & there is a strong risk of a break lower to find short term Fibonacci support at 93.27.

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Dax went sideways last week after Monday’s big move and held almost within this day’s range of 7858 up to 8033/47. On Friday we  beat resistance is at 7945 to test 7965/75 & topped here as expected. Any shorts here today need a stop above 7987 for 8000/05. A break above 8015 then targets 8039/45 resistance from last week’s highs

EuroStoxx above 2630/33 targets resistance at 2647/49 & last week’s highs. We will need a push through 2655 today for further gains with 2663/68 & then 2675 the targets.

S&P held 1537/36 support & is challenging the 1556/59 highs today. Failure here leaves a bearish double top pattern in place to target 1553/52 then 1548 today

EURUSD was held by 1.2890/80 support & has beaten 1.2970/80 resistance to reach the next target of 1.3024/48.

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Brent Crude dipped below 107.25/01 but held above December lows at 106.66/63 as we shoot higher this morning to break the 1 month down trend.

Natural Gas reached 4.025 last week but did not activate stop loss orders on shorts above 4.050. Increased volatility can be the sign of a turn in the market & we stick with the view that the market could be topping after an 11 month rally. Only a break of 4.050 changes that view, which would then see 4.413/414 as the next upside target.

RBOB Gasoline has  304.71 as support but any longs here need a stop below 303.50 for 302 & then very strong support at 299.52/41 where we look for a bounce.

Gasoil was predicted to bottom out at the 4 year trend line support and expected low for the 6 week down trend at 897 & we advised that it was too risky to continue to run shorts. We survived a test of 897/896 every day last week as expected. Resistance today at 906.40 is being tested now & then above 910.50 we look for 912.68 with 917.75 the target above.

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Kospi tested the 100 day moving average at 255.34 & managed a bounce. There is a very good chance that we have now seen the low for the 3 week correction. We reached 257.70/258.20 resistance which we predicted should hold moves higher on Friday & the high was 257.60.

Hang Seng backed away from 22400/425 resistance as expected. 21990/920 is support again and we do look over sold so there is a good chance of a bounce & we can try longs again here. However we are in a 6 week down trend so a break lower is always possible & can take us as far as 21698/21643.

Topix reversed from 1058 & broke support at 1044/43 but we did see the market bounce from 1028/27 as expected. We have bounced to the 1043/44 level now & a push through 1048 could allow another test of 1058 highs. We look for a high again here but shorts need a stop above 1060 for the next target of 1068.

USDJPY one year trend line support comes in today at 94.10/93.95 & we look for a bounce from here. If we continue lower we find short term Fibonacci support at 93.27 which should hold any losses today.

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May Brent took a tumble to test 107.25/01 support & bounced from here. After 6 weeks of losses we may be trying to carve out a base. Resistance today is at 107.80/90 but above here look for 108.30/40.

Gasoil was predicted to bottom out at the 4 year trend line support and expected low for the 6 week down trend at 897. We have suffered sever losses but are now oversold so it is too risky to continue to run shorts. We survived a test of 897/896 yesterday as expected.

Natural Gas spiked through 3.965-3.976 to hit 4.025 but did not activate stop loss orders on shorts above 4.050 & we fell back very quickly. Increased volatility can be the sign of a turn in the market & we have been unable to make any progress this week as we had warned but have become more volatile. We stick with the view that the market could be topping unless we see a break of 4.050 which would then see 4.413/414 as the next upside target.

RBOB Gasoline tested 312.08/25 resistance but failed to break higher. We are holding 304.71 support nicely but any longs here need a stop below 303.

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RBOB Gasoline dipped lower but only to 302 and shot higher. We unexpectedly broke resistance
at 309.90 & if we hold above here look for 312.08/25 to be tested again.

Gasoil was predicted to bottom out yesterday at 897.00, the 4 year trend line support and expected low for the 6 week down trend here. We have suffered sever losses but are now oversold
so it is too risky to continue to run shorts.

WTI Crude May contract beat resistance at 92.68 to reach our upper target of 93.47/54 & came
to a halt here.

May Brent beat 108.43 but has so far failed to reach 109.15/30 resistance. If we can hold above
108.45/35 we are still in with a chance to test this area but should halt here.

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Some of the stock markets in Europe & the USA have seen enormous gains in the steady 4 year bull run that started in 2009. According to my calculations this equates to up to 

133% for the S&P 500 

125% for the German Dax

88% for the FTSE 100

The S&P 500 and FTSE 100 have in fact recorded gains of 11% in just over 2 months since 31^st December, when the US reached a ‘fiscal cliff’ deal. These markets have had such a good run that we are closing in very quickly on all time highs seen in 2007 and also back in 2000, before the two big crashes that followed each peak. This morning I have even been reading how some of the big analysts who have been bears over much of this bull run are now getting bullish themselves: 

Economist Dr. Doom ‘Nouriel Roubini believes recent actions by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank will continue to make equities an attractive investment during the next few months.’

‘Adam Parker joins a string of bearish analysts capitulating on bearish views in the face of higher equity
market. Parker’s bearish reputation stemmed from his 2011 call. He was the most accurate prognosticator on Wall Street that year. But he stuck to his pessimistic views last year, a call that proved incredibly wrong. At the beginning of 2012, he was calling for the index to drop about 8% for the year. Instead, it rose 13%. Parker says he sees improving fundamentals in the second half of the year and into early 2014 that will drive the rally.’ 

‘Richard Russell, a newsletter writer who has been penning the “Dow Theory Letters” since 1958, is now advising his clients to buy stocks, an about face for someone who had been pretty bearish for much of the four-year-old bull market.’

‘Meredith Whitney, known more for her pessimistic take on the markets, has turned in the opposite direction: This Is the Most Bullish I’ve Been In My Career’

With stock markets becoming almost euphoric, even shrugging off Cypriot savings tax worries in a matter of hours, perhaps this is a good time to be taking a technical longer term view of these stock markets.

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WTI Crude WTI Crude broke lower but held above 91.58/40 as hoped. We then broke 93.31 to retest last week’s high at 93.84 & over ran a little to 93.94. So 93.72/94 is our resistance band today & if we push higher look for 94.46.

May Brent Crude retested last week’s low at 107.91/84 & bounced as predicted. We then reached 109.56 resistance & we stated ‘unlikely we can make it any higher at this stage’ as we topped  out just above at 109.68.   

Natural Gas tried to break last year’s high at 3.933. We warned all last week that the market is becoming very over bought now and we do expect to see a top for the bull run here this year. We managed to stretch to 3.966 but held below our stop loss level of 3.405 keeping us short for the sell off down to 3.858.

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June Gilts continue to  form a potential bullish inverse head & shoulders on the daily chart.

FTSE held just above trend line support at 6268/65 & rocketed to our upper target & resistance at 6400/08. We topped out exactly here.

Dax has bounced from 7858 & beat resistance at 7999/8004 to reach 8033. Support today at 8000/7995 but below here we could visit 7972/65 & we look for a bounce. Stops on longs however are needed below 7945 for 7912.

EuroStoxx hit our lower support at 2564 & bounced to resistance at 2638 which was expected to cap but we over ran slightly to 2645. This almost filled the gap at 2648 & above here today we look for 2658/61 resistance.

S&P tested Fibonacci & 21 day MA support at 1529/27 & bounced from here to our target & resistance at 1549 but continued higher to 1552.

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Kospi June Future tested the next support at 259.85/00 as expected where we met the 100 day moving average & saw a bounce as hoped. We now face resistance at 261.58/261.76 which should be a struggle today.

Hang Seng broke 22228/22133 strong support as feared to test 21993 trend line support & we bottomed just a fraction below at 21920.

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index did continue lower to break last week’s low of 10885 & the 100 week MA at 10807 to meet good support at 10684. We predicted a floor at this stage & indeed the market bottomed just above here at 10701. 

Topix June Contract tested of good support at 1021/1019 ‘which is likely to trigger a good bounce & a possible low for the day.’ This worked perfectly with a low at 1020.

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May Brent Crude hit very tough resistance at 110.50/60 & as predicted we topped out exactly here. We are below 108.90 & may retest last week’s low at 107.91/84. 

Natural Gas has reached last year’s high at 3.933. However as stated last week, the market is becoming very over bought now and we do expect to see a top for the bull run this year at this stage. So far we have halted at 3.938 & may drift lower to support at 3.865.

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Bar Chart - A price chart where each bar represents the range of price movement over a given time period and shows the high, low and close of that time period.

Bear Market or down trend - A market in which prices are generally declining.

Bid - The highest price anyone has declared the market or a broker will pay at a given time.

Bounce - A sudden rebound in the market (or a stock) typified by a strong upward move directly after a strong down move.

Break Point - The area at which the price breaks below or above a trend line

Bull Market or up trend - A market in which prices are generally rising.

Bullish - Term used to describe rising prices.

Buying Power - In a margin account, the maximum monetary amount a client can purchase or sell short without having to deposit additional funds.

Candlestick Chart - A price chart where each bar represents the range of price movement over a given time period and shows the high, low and close of that time period. The colour of the bar shows the direction of the market for that time period

Day Chart - A chart on which each bar represents the time period of one day

Day Order - An order that, if not executed on the day it is entered, expires at the close of that day's trading.

Day Trade - The buying and selling of the same security within the same day.

Fibonacci Ratio - A set of numbers used in the measurement of movements in prices that allow the identification of support and resistance levels and targets

Good-Til-Canceled (open) Order (GTC) - An order that does not expire at the end of the day it is entered. Instead, it remains in force until it is either executed or canceled by the trader. 

Hit the Bid - This is the term used for when traders sell to the current posted bid price.

Limit Order - Sets the highest price the customer is willing to pay for a buy order, or the lowest price the customer is willing to accept for a sell order. Buy orders may be executed at or below the limit price, but never higher. Sell orders may be executed at or above the limit price, but never lower.

Long Position - A trader has bought securities or contracts that are either fully paid for (a cash account) or partially paid for (a margin account).

Margin - Trading products such as futures, options & spread bets do not require full payment when a position is opened. A broker will require a Margin as security to allow the position to be opened. 

Margin Call - If an open position moves in a loss a broker may request an increase in margin to allow the position to remain open and provide cover against future increased losses. 

Market Order - An order that is executed as quickly as possible at the best price available. During market hours, this means orders for widely traded securities will usually execute at or close to the current quotation. Buy orders should execute at or close to the "ask" price and Sell orders should execute at or close to the "bid" price. 

Market Maker - A broker-dealer firm that accepts the risk of buying or selling in order to facilitate trading in a security & therefore provides liquidity. Each market maker competes for customer order flow by quoting buy and sell prices in the open market. 

Minute Chart - A chart on which each bar represents the time period of one minute

Moving Average - A moving average uses price data over a specified time period to smooth out short-term fluctuations and highlight longer-term trends or cycles.

Rally (recovery) - An upward movement of prices. Opposite of a sell-off.

Range - The high and low prices for the period.

Resistance Level - A price at which prices may tend to stop upward momentum and hold below this level. Traders may use a resistance level to enter a short position or exit a long position.

Short Position - A position in a customer's account in which the customer has sold to open a position. A trader can sell something 'short' that he does not already own in order to buy it back at a later time, hopefully at a cheaper price.

Short Sale - The sale of securities that are not owned or that are not intended for delivery. The short seller "borrows" the stock to make delivery with the intent to buy it back at a later date at a lower price.

Spread - The difference between the bid and offer sides of a quote.

Stop (Order) - An order that is automatically executed when the price is reached or passed. Buy stops are entered above the current market price; sell stops are entered below it. Stop orders can be used to enter a position once the price has moved beyond a certain level in the hope that the trend continues or they can be used to exit a position a position once the price has moved beyond a certain level to limit losses

Stop Loss - An order that is automatically executed when the price is reached or passed in order to limit a loss on a trade. A Buy Stop Loss order will exit a short sale. A Sell Stop order will exit a long position. 

Stop Trigger - The price at which your stop order is executed. One the price trigger is hit the order will be executed at the best price. This may not be at the exact price the stop order was entered if the market is moving quickly.

Support Level - A price at which the price may tend to stop its momentum when moving downward. Traders may use a support level to enter a long position or exit a short position.

Trend - The general direction over a specified period, of the movement in prices. There are three trends. Prices can trend upwards, downwards or sideways with in a range.

Trend Line - A line joining two or more points on a chart to demonstrate the direction of the trend. The Trend line will also provide support and resistance levels

Volatility - The degree of price fluctuation usually expressed as a variance or standard deviation.

Weekly Chart - A chart on which each bar represents the time period of one week

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index looks likely to continue lower this week & a break of last week’s low of 10885 leads us to the 100 week MA at 10807.

Hang Seng failed to make it above 22700 & is falling back to 22228/22133. Although this is strong support the outlook is weakening with the break of the 6 month up trend line last week, so be ready for a break below 22058 today.

Kospi June Future failed  at 266.18/50 resistance and broke below 263.15. We are heading below support at 261.95/60 keeping prices under pressure for a test of the next support at 259.85/50.

Topix June Contract reached our target of 1045/50 last week & after pulling back from here we retested this level on Friday. This is holding so far expected with the market severely overbought on daily & weekly charts.

FTSE China A50 has broken 8275/30 lows as feared. This is very significant as it completes a head & shoulders topping pattern. We hit our target of 8110/8090 & held this support on Friday.

USDJPY failed to break the 96.55/71 highs last week as expected with the market overbought, leaving a small double top pattern to keep prices under pressure this week. On Friday we broke 95.84 to test 95.34/29 & over ran slightly to 95.08.

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May Brent Crude has held above 107.91/84 Fibonacci support & is now testing 109.56 resistance.

Natural Gas continued higher as expected to hit the week’s target of 3.748.

RBOB Gasoline is predicted to have topped out after a 4 month rally. Yesterday we tested 310/309 support for the third day in a row.

Gasoil held 910/908 support & our buying opportunity. We have bounced back above 910 & beaten the first resistance level of 915.18 as hoped as we look for 919.78 now.

EURUSD tried a break below 1.2965/55 which was not a surprise in this down trend, but we have held on to 1.2911& bounced.

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FTSE has made it to our 6520/25 target with the break above 6530 now signaling a test of the high for 2008 seen on the 4th Jan at 6547.

Dax continued the ‘clear uptrend’ to test Friday’s high at 8028 & pushed on to our 8045 target as expected. If we can hold on above here today we look for 8073.  

EuroStoxx held above 2711 to reach the 2735 target & should push on now to test the years high so far at 2755.

S&P hit our target of 1555/58 which takes us back to Oct 2007 levels & we have topped out here.

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Nikkei held above 12121/117 support & pushed higher as expected to retest 12400 resistance. The market did top out here again as we suggested but the uptrend could now target 12575.

Kospi June Future testing resistance at 266.18/50 & a push through here can take us to 267.70/268.10.

Hang Seng hit the 22228/22133 target as expected & we found a floor exactly here as we suggested we would. We have resistance today in the 22603/604 band.

FTSE China A50 has broken 8275/30 lows as feared. This is very significant as it completes a head & shoulders topping pattern. The longer term measured target for this pattern is 7100. 

Topix beat 1036/38 resistance as we close in on a test of the 1044/45 highs. This is holding so far expected with the market severely overbought on daily & weekly charts

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index tested 10929 Nov highs as expected. Just below here we have the 100 week MA at 10807 so we would hope to fall no further at this stage.

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Dax is going sideways as overbought oscillators call for a pause after a good rally. However we are in a clear uptrend & so above 7984 a test of Friday’s high at 8028 would not be a surprise today.

EuroStoxx dipped below 2708/03 to bottom at 2693 as expected. Watch for 2693 to hold again on any weakness.

S&P hit our 1551 target & topped here this week. 1551 resistance held again yesterday as did 1542 support on the downside as predicted.

EURUSD is just drifting sideways this week. We became very oversold after 4 weeks of heavy losses & this consolidation period will allow the oversold oscillators to unwind. We tried a break below 1.2965/55 which was not a surprise in this down trend, but we have held on to 1.2924 so far.

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Brent Crude broke recent lows at 109.14 to hit the lower target of 108.13 & bottomed just below at 107.91; the daily 78.6% Fibonacci support.  

Natural Gas finally hit our 3.684 target!! We expected the market to halt here yesterday but have over run just slightly to 3.696.

The Gasoil down trend is hard to fight and we broke 916 to test strong support at 911/910 & potential buying opportunity. Although we over ran a little to 908 we have bounced back above 910 & are closing in on the first resistance level of 915.18.

RBOB Gasoline is predicted to have topped out after a 4 month rally. Yesterday we tested 310/309 support & as expected we saw a low for the day here.

Spot Gold needs to hold above 1586/87 for a move back to 1595 & then the week’s high at 1598/99. 

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USDJPY held on above 95.34/29 support as hoped. Below 95.71/64 today we look for a test of 95.34/29 & we could see a bounce from here again.    

Nikkei is hovering just above 12121/117 support. We have unwound the short term over bought oscillators so we may push higher today, but if we break 12100 look for 12030  

Topix finally hit our target of 1044/50 as we have been forecasting for quite a while & topped out, hitting profit taking right here. We fell back to 1022 support which has held but below here 1018/17 is likely to trigger a good bounce.  

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index has broken good support at  1090/040 so 10929 Nov highs are now likely to be targeted.  

Hang Seng broke support at 22750 to test the next support at 22560/530 but has closed just below here.  

Kospi Future held 261.58 support & also resistance at 263.63. A break of 261 risks continued losses towards 259.52/258.27.

USDJPY failed at 96.71 to test our first support at 95.71 & bounced from here.

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index has broken good support at 11370/300 to test the next level at 11246.

FTSE China A50 is retesting 8275/30 lows as predicted. A break here is very possible & should trigger selling pressure with a target of 8110/8090.  

Nikkei hit our 12360 target & topped just above at 12400, then broke the first support of 12215 yesterday to find a bottom just above 12121/117 support as hoped.

Kospi Future tested 261.58 support & this did hold again as hoped. However a break of 261 looks much more likely today & risks continued losses towards 259.52/258.27.

Hang Seng could not break through 23176/200 resistance but broke 22985/873 support as we head toward the next level of 22750.

Natural Gas did dip back to support at 3.590 and this held the low of the day. However we are now breaking above 3.650 to target 3.684

RBOB Gasoline broke higher to hit the upper target at 326.15/327.66. We then collapsed from this resistance area to form a bearish reversal day. With the market over bought on daily & weekly charts this could be an indication that prices have topped out after a 4 month rally. 

Gasoil paused last week after 3 weeks of heavy losses. Tough resistance this week is at 934/936 and it is only above the 200 day MA at 939 that the outlook is more positive

WTI Crude did see some profit taking as expected but we did not reach 90.55 support, bouncing instead from 90.89. We are now holding above 91.90/92.00 for a chance to test 92.50/92.70 strong resistance above.

FTSE unexpectedly burst higher through 6397 in the afternoon as we reach for the highs of 2008.

Dax broke 7786 to reach the next target of 7849/7864 but was held by resistance at the 7888 five year high above.

EuroStoxx held support at 2632  & unexpectedly broke through 2670/78 to reach 2687. This is the top of the one month channel and if we cannot break higher we should dip back to 2655.

S&P broke above 1532 to trigger stops on shorts as we shot higher to 1542/43.

EURUSD hit resistance at 1.3077 which did hold the bounce as predicted, but a break above here today looks more likely & targets 1.3145.

Bund tested 145.10 support before bottoming at 145.01. Below here today 144.73/67 should provide a floor & a buying opportunity.

RBOB Gasoline is retesting February highs for the March contract & tough resistance at 315/317.

Natural Gas broke 3.554 as predicted to hit out next target & tough resistance at 3.592/613. As expected this has held the move & we could expect a move back to support at 3.483.

WTI Crude Oil broke lower to test 89.47 support this week but we do think we have seen the end of the 4 week sell off as predicted Monday. We beat 90.54 for a run to our first target of 91.30/40.

Brent Crude Oil made a low for the 2 week correction as predicted & broke 111.06 to hit the target of 111.83/98 where we looked for a top. We over ran a little & have pulled back but a move above 112.25 today targets 112.73 & then 113.25/45.

Brent dipped below trend line support at 109.81 but bottomed at 109.58 & recovered very quickly. We are now severely over sold on daily charts & there is a good chance we have made a low for the 2 week correction, so we are looking for a bounce today back up to 111.06 & possibly 111.83/98 where we look for a top at this stage.

WTI Crude Oil broke lower to test 89.47 support but we do think we have seen the end of the 4 week sell off as predicted yesterday.

EURUSD has initial resistance at 1.3077 today which could hold a bounce, but above here we could see 1.3145 which should hold the topside. If we push through 1.3165 however, we look for a good selling opportunity at 1.3199 with a stop needed above 1.3225.

RBOB Gasoline for April delivery needs to get back above 312 resistance for a move to 315/316. If we push higher
look for 319, possibly 322 for a selling opportunity.

Gasoil tested strong support at 920.25/918.75. Here we predicted a low for the week & although we did over run a little to 915.25, we have recovered quickly. Being so over sold there is a strong chance we have seen the low for this 3 week correction. A bounce is very likely from this point & above 926 we can target Friday’s high of 930 then Fibonacci resistance at 934.25.

Spot Gold broke 1584 & fell all the way back to 1565. Support 1569/67 held yesterday as expected and could hold any weakness again today. It does look like we can hold above 1579/80 for 1587/88 resistance.

WTI Crude Oil broke the 100 day & 21 week moving average support at 90.90/80 to test the 200 day MA at 90.40 & up trend line at 90.25. As stated on Friday this should be a buying opportunity & we have held on here. We are severely oversold on daily & shorter term charts & it is no longer safe to run shorts. Only a close below 90.00 today would keep the market under pressure for 89.47.

Brent Crude Oil continued lower to hit trend line support at 109.81 & we bottomed exactly here. We are now severely over sold on daily & shorter term charts so we are looking for a bounce today back up to 110.76 & possibly 111.25. Above here look for 111.65 & then 112.00/13. This should be as far as we make it in the early part of the week.

Gasoil tested strong support at 920.25/918.75. Here we predicted a low for the week & the exact low was 917.25. Being so over sold a bounce is very likely from this point & above 926 we can target Friday’s high of 930 then Fibonacci resistance at 935.78. Watch for a high here at this stage. However a break higher could find tough resistance at 944.27/947.24.

March RBOB Gasoline tested the December high at 283.92/83 where we saw a possible bounce from here.
We shot higher from 282.70. April needs to hold above 312 now for a test of resistance at 315/316. If we push higher look for 319, possibly 322 for a selling opportunity.

S&P first support at 1508 then we should see 1503 & possibly fall as far as 1498/95 today. This did hold on Friday as expected but any longs here today need a stop below 1490 for 1485/82 lows & support.

Bobl headed higher as expected & broke 127.78 to hit 127.83. No reason why we cannot keep going for 127.87 which fulfils the target for the inverse head & shoulders pattern.

Bund hit the 145.63 target & topped exactly here. We can break higher again today for 145.82 then 145.89 trend line resistance

If we cannot beat yesterday’s high of 313.86 we may see a small pullback to find support at 310.18 then 308.20/00 which should hold the downside.

Hang Seng China Enterprises Future hit resistance at 11855/880 & came to a halt. If we make it above here today we run in to 9 & 21 day moving averages at 11934/998 which could cause problems but if we push higher we can close the gap at 12120.
Excellent support remains at 11579/550 which we expect to hold the downside. Watch for a low again here this week but be ready to go with a break below 11460 for 11298.

Topix spiked higher again last week but closed lower. This reversal week indicates a top has been made. We have now closed below the 9 day MA at 956 which will act as resistance.
We bounced nicely off 933/931 support on Friday but face resistance at 942. This should be tough to break but above here 956/958 is a big obstacle now. Unlikely we can go any higher but tough resistance offers a selling opportunity at 2011 highs of 977/980. A break higher is increasingly unlikely but would then target 2010 highs of 999/1003. A break of 930 targets 918 next. This is strong support & should hold for now so look for a bounce. A break however targets 902.

We watch for a break today to take us towards Feb lows at 7536. Good support from here down to 7525 should be a bargain buying opportunity but we need a stop below 7510 for a test of 100 day Moving Average at 7470.

The top side looks limited with resistance at 7611/14 then 7637 & 7658/61 likely to hold any strength again. However above here 7691/96 is another tough obstacle but a break allows another test of the recent high at 7728/39.

EuroStoxx remained under pressure to target  the week’ low at 2612/10 as expected.

A move below 2597 today risks a retest of 2589/83 support & a second chance to buy in to medium term longs in the hope of a double bottom, with a stop below the 7 month uptrend line at 2570. 

Immediate resistance is 2616 but above here 2626/28 should be a struggle. If we manage a push through here we could reach 2641/43, possibly 2652.

EURUSD also tested good support at 1.3310/1.3290 where we predicted the chance of a low for the week and the low was seen at 1.3306 on Friday.

Emini S&P hit our target of 1521 after breaking higher through 1511 resistance and this capped the move.

Emini Dow Jones was unable to break and hold above 14000 as we had warned & appears to be completing a short term topping pattern.

Brent Crude saw a good correction on Friday as predicted, having held below resistance at118.20/30 for a week & we hit our target for the day at 116.70 then continued lower towards the next target of 116.19 and held above here.

Nymex WTI Crude Oil was forecast to sell off on Friday after hitting resistance at 98.00/24. We did head lower towards our target of 95.06/94.97, but bounced just above here at 95.21.

Gas Oil was predicted to top out at 1029/32 and this was the high. We then predicted a fall back to support at 1000/999 and a low for the correction. The exact low for the week was 999 and we suggested to our clients to exit shorts here and buy in to longs. We saw a good bounce from here back up to 1012.

The over night high is 1675.10/15 and above here look for 1677.00/75 but a push through here
can target 1682.18-1683.10. Above here we can test the high for the past week at 1684.10/85.

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Gasoil has tested tough resistance from the daily 50% Fibonacci level at 963.50 and failed to break higher. It looks like we are
running out of momentum therefore and can expect a small correction rather than an aggressive sell off.  We are looking for a
move back to 954.44 today and this level may hold initially. However a break lower eventually cannot be ruled out for a test of
better support at 948.95/90. Here we need to exit all shorts and try longs for a bounce with a stop below 942 for a test of the
next support at 937.50/936.50.  
Resistance at 963.50/965.00 should remain very tough to beat but a break above 965.50 should signal another leg higher towards 972.25/75, possibly 974.00. A push through here would then keep the momentum going for a test of tough resistance at 979.19 which may trigger some profit taking.

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Bobl reached the 126.43/45 target but broke higher for 126.58. This is a 78.6% recovery off the lows and should be tough to beat today with the market now over bought in the short term.  
126.44/43 is our first support and has held the pullback so far but a move below here looks very possible and should see 126.34 with better support at 126.26. A low for the day is very possible here so worth exiting shorts and  trying longs with a stop below a very small gap at 126.18.
If however we can sustain a break above 126.59 look for 126.64/65 on the way to Nov highs at 126.74. A push to new highs for
the month would then target 126.85 which is a daily 61.8% Fib resistance and should be tough to beat today with a roll over gap at 126.90....so this band would be expected to put a lid on the market at this stage.

Dax hit the 9 week MA and short term Fibonacci support at 7266 which we stated should hold a slide for a while at least and we did bounce from exactly this point.  
We rocketed higher as fiscal cliff worries evaporated and have now broken higher as we head for trend line resistance at 7409.
Above here we have October & November highs, so far at least, at 7440/49. The market is getting overbought again in the short term but these indicators are largely being ignored in this event driven market. A break higher today then targets 2012 highs at 7476.  
Support at 7336 then 7315/06 and then this week’s lows at 7274/65. 

FTSE testing last week’s high at 5837. A push through here today targets the 78.6% Fib retracement level of 5859 where we
could encounter sellers. However a break through here see us heading for a test of Oct/Nov highs at 5903/07. If this does not hold us back we are looking for the Sept highs of 5933 next.
Support at 5828/24 but below 5818 look for 5800 then 5787, possibly 5777/71. Below here we can retest this week’s lows at 5755.

S&P dipped to test 1382/81 where we met the 200 day moving average and Fibonacci support. We advised to take profit on
shorts with a strong chance of a low for the day and the market bottomed just above here at 1383.   
We have now broken 1407 on the third attempt to reach the next target at 1414.  We are starting to look a little over bought but if we break 1416 look for 1423/24 as the next resistance level. This should be very tough to beat so worth exiting longs and trying shorts with stops above 1431.  
If 1414 continues to hold we look for a dip back to 1409/07. Below here risks a slide to 1402. This could mark the low for today but a break lower would signal further weakness with 1398 as our next target.   

We dipped to 7306 and are looking for a move below here today to trend line and 55 day moving average support at 7281. We
then have Monday’s low at 7274 plus 9 week MA and short term Fibonacci support at 7266 so this band should hold a slide for a while at least. However we are getting over bought on the daily chart and the shorter term picture is indicating a sell off so a
break below 7260 should keep the pressure on for Friday’s low and 21 day MA support at 7223/20. Look to cover shorts for the

day from here down to 7207 but if attempting longs, we need a stop loss and reverse in to shorts below the gap at 7192.

7363/65 should continue to offer tough resistance today for attempting shorts. However if we continue higher look for 7392, possibly Nov/Oct highs at 7440/49.

We took a tumble back to 2536/34 support and just held on here but we are looking for a break lower today to trend line and
short term Fib support at 2529/26. Below here we should  target 2509/05 to cover some, if not all shorts as there is a good
chance of a bounce on the day from here being 9, 21 & 55 day plus 9 week moving average support. However any longs will need stop/reverse in to shorts below 2503 for 2493. This is very good support so should hold if seen today.           

Resistance at 2545/48 could hold any move higher but above 2554 we may try for 2563 again. We would have to see a close
above the 200 week MA and Oct high at 2575/78 now to allow further gains in a market that is getting over bought on the daily
chart. This seems highly unlikely but should lead to a test of 2012 highs and the big double top at 2607.

If we can hold on to 10470 there is a chance we can retest the recent highs up to 10679. Watch for failure on the way here again with the market becoming over bought in the short term now so worth trying shorts on the approach.  However a break above 10720 is more positive and should activate stops on shorts. We look for a move higher then to 10838, possibly as far as a retest of the November highs at 10929. 

Micex Cash
Micex unable to make it to 1423/29. There is a lot of resistance here and it would be a surprise to see us any higher today.   
1403 is our first support with scope for 1395 and a chance of a low for today but below here look for 1390/88.