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How to Read Our Technical Analysis Forecasts
A Recap of Various Market Forecasts and How to Profit From Day Trading
15th April 2015
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Latest News
US Stock Markets Have Trended Sideways For Month and a Half
By Jason Sen
About six months ago I focused some of my articles on the potential overvaluation of some US stock markets. As it happens the E-mini S&P did peak at the time when I speculated we could be seeing a high for the bull market. Since then we have mostly trending sideways dipping down as far as 2033 and bouncing back on 3 occasions. You can see the black trendlines through March and April indicated gently downward sloping channel. You can also see in the last couple of days how we have tested the upper trendline of this six-week channel with a clear rejection on 13 April. With the market overbought it looks quite likely that we could start trend lower over the next week or two and perhaps retest two and a half month trendline support at 2050. If this fails the sport market we would then risk a retest of the lower trendline in this trend channel at around the 2030/2025 area. Clearly bulls require a sustained break above 2100 to stand chance of retesting the all-time high at 2117.75. It is not a surprise to see a similar pattern in the E-mini Dow Jones. The channel here looks slightly steeper to the downside and you can see we are clearly testing the upper trend line in the channel, which comes in at around 17,960 as I write. Again we heavily rejected this trendline on 13 April and will need at least a sustained break and close above 18,000 this week for the chance to test late March highs at 18,125 before the all-time high at 18,270. Failure to break above this six-week upper channel trendline could trigger a move back to 17,770/760 where we meet the 100 day moving average. This is key and a break lower would then risk a test of two and half month trendline support in the 17,620 area. Failure here would then risk a test of March/April lows at 17,475/465. Again the Emini Nasdaq picture shows a gently downward sloping trend channel over the same period and a rejection of the upper trendline on 13 April. We’ve already started heading lower as I write and a break below 4380 should increase downside pressure. We have quite good support at 4300/4295 which really is the last line of defence for bulls. Failure here would be likely to risk a test of the lower trendline support at 4240/4235 in the weeks ahead. Only a sustained break and close above the 4440/4450 area can rescue bulls from this potential short term move to the downside.
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