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Forex Outlook for the Week
8th December 2015
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Global Markets Hit a Volatile Patch in December
By Jason Sen
The US stock markets in particular had become really quite boring from a traders perspective, once the recovery in October took hold. Great if you are an investor to see prices climbing steadily in the low volatility environment but for day traders more like myself, this offered little opportunity for profit. However in the first week of December we have seen increased volatility and more so over the last two days. Let’s try to work out what all this means with a look at the daily charts. In the Emini S&P chart above you can see how yesterday we managed to bounce on trendline support and retraced almost all of the day’s losses in fact by the close. This is quite encouraging for Bulls and shows that buyers are prepared to jump in aggressively on any correction at this stage. We do of course have a lot of resistance from November highs at 2075 and all-time highs at 2079. This is obviously the major challenge on any rally and we will need to see a close above here for us to embark on the next leg higher. However bear in mind that the break of yesterday’s low at 2033 should trigger further profit-taking and could at least target the October high and Fibonacci support in the 2022/2016 area. The Dax futures chart above is less positive however, as we fail to sustain the move above the big psychological level of 10,000. The market has reversed over the past two sessions, as we hover around 9800, as I write and about 100 points below here there is critical support in the 9710 to 9700 area. If the market breaks below this level, it could trigger much heavy selling pressure and at least target the 200 day moving average at 9530. Gold had an extremely volatile day on 1 December, as we rocketed from a low of 1142 up to a high of 1221. This strong reversal seems to have confirmed at least a short-term Bull trend, which started at the beginning of November. Yesterday on 9 December we managed to break above 3 ½ month trendline resistance to test the 100 day moving average at 1237. This stopped us in our tracks, but if we can continue to hold above that trendline in the 1220/15 area and break above the 100 day moving average going forward, we should at least target October highs at 1255 and perhaps even push on as far as strong resistance in the 1265/1270 area. Despite the fact that the dollar has been continually strong, gold has staged quite a comeback over the past six weeks. If the dollar were to weaken into the end of the year, this would certainly help gold to maintain its strength. A look at the EURUSD chart below shows a descending wedge pattern and with the pair recovering from severely oversold position, a break above the upper trendline. In the one 2420/25 area would be positive for the pair in the short term at least. The USDJPY has topped out this week, but held strong Fibonacci support at 117.90. This will be a very important level throughout December with a break below here to signal a deeper correction in this longer-term Bull trend and may signal a move at least as far as 115.50. The USDCAD is also showing signs of running out of steam as we become overbought. When we reach these overbought levels in the beginning of November this triggered a correction and after yesterday’s price action we could be about to witness another correction into the end of December. This looks likely to at least target three month trendline support in the 1.1330/1.1300 area.
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