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Dax Daily Market Forecast
Dax Technical Analysis
15th June 2015
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Gold and Silver Bounce Off Important Longer-Term Support Levels
By Jason Sen
In a couple of recent articles over the past month I focused on how gold was approaching a very important longer-term support level at 1087/1086. You will know that gold did not see daily close below this level, which encouraged me to believe a bounce was on the cards. You will also be aware that we saw this bounce back up to 100 day moving average and seven-month trendline resistance at 1165/1170. The monthly chart above clearly shows we have perfectly held above the long-term 50% Fibonacci support. The price of gold suffered a small correction into the last week of August, but interestingly enough, those reliable Fibonacci levels played a part in the pull back. The 61.8% support level at 1116 held perfectly and this signals to me, the start of a medium-term bull trend. That is not to say we are not still in a bear trend. A look at the weekly chart below shows very clearly how after a fairly stable period in the second half of 2013 and the first half of 2014, the price of gold continued to trend lower into the summer of 2015. There is in fact nothing in this weekly picture that would convince me to buy gold. It’s only the monthly chart that gives an indication of a potential bull run. A look at the daily chart shows the one-month bull trend establishing itself, and it looks like a push back up to important resistance at 1160/1165 could be seen in the early part of September. This area will be crucial. A sustained break above 1170 would help to confirm my theory of the beginning of a positive trend. Failure to break above this level however keeps gold in the longer term bear trend. Looking at the longer-term monthly chart for silver, this also paints quite a positive picture, despite the fact we have been in a long-term bear market for over four years. The key to my theory is simply strong support from the 200 month moving average at 14.00. You can also see the 12 year trendline in the chart above, which comes in at around the 13.50 mark. I think there is a very good chance that this area will mark a low for the bear market. Unfortunately there are no other patterns, formations or indicators that back up my theory for silver, so much of this comes from a gut feeling. We have minor resistance around the 15.00 area but a break above the 15.50/70 area would make me feel more confident in my prediction of higher prices for silver. The next big resistance area is in the 16.10/16.30 area.
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